View Full Version : AK flop A or K

10-29-2004, 10:37 AM
What are the true probabilities against on average of 4 opponents when you have AK and flop an A or K. I play online, and have @ 3500 hands loaded into my poker tracker. When trying to figure out why I've lost $ on AK, I found that of the 12 times I flopped an A or K w/ AK, I won 7. 59% win when I hit the flop we're looking for. Am I just on a bad run, or should I expect this?

10-29-2004, 01:47 PM
In all probability, it is not the fact that you only won 7 of 12 times when you hit TPTK, but how you played the other hands that made you a net loser with AK.

Since you have poker tracker, I suggest you look at your flop, turn and river play on the hands you did not flop a pair. Did you give up to early, or did you bet your hand come hell-or-high water and lose much more than you should have? I think this is where you will find your leak.

My favorite aspect of poker tracker is the replay feature - try it.

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif

10-29-2004, 06:31 PM
I think you only hit the flop 1 in 3 w/ AKo

10-29-2004, 09:35 PM
I have studied the hands extensively, and have recently read the Small Stakes Hold'em book by Miller, Sklansky and Malmuth. I made few errors, where if put in the situation again, I would do it again. I had bad outdraws by bad players costing me the biggest pots IE: AK suited in BB, UTG (hand unknown) raises, bad player cold calls raise from middle pos. with 5,2 suited, next player calls with JJ, I raise and UTG caps, both the 5,2 and JJ call. Flop is AQ3, 3 suited. I bet out and all 3 call. Turn is a 4. I bet, and am raised. (The bad player had cracked my AA 3 hands earlier cold calling a raise and reraise with 9,4 suited, and filling 2 pair on the river, so I could not assume he wouldn't have 5,2 or 2 pair). I just called down. My other outdraws or beats are similar. The latest I have AK in late position and raise. The BB and one other player call. Flop AQ8 3 suits. BB bets limper folds, I raise, he reraises, I cap ( I think this is a correct play on my part) 4th st is a blank, but when he bets out, I call down. He had played Q8os from the BB.
I am adjusting my game. Why I posted in the probability section, is because I am curious how often you should expect to to be outdrawn when you do hit the hand, so I can determine how much luck has played into my losses with this hand.

I have won with AK a total of 18 of 38 times. If always played them aggressively pre flop, and did not fold any hands that would have turned up best at low limit tables (that were shown down). I was agressive on the flop a high percentage of the time (probably to my detriment on the coordinated flops), but folded a fair share by the turn if I was fairly certain I was beat, and/or drawing dead.

11-01-2004, 07:17 PM
I think the reason AK gets overplayed so often (at least what I've seen in lower limits) is because see the cards, and almost seem "stuck" to the notion that they have the top two cards, and will try and chase all the way down trying to make TPTK, and don't know when to release.
I'm not stating you're a bad player by any means, and that's the cause, I was just making a general statement about the hand.
I find AK a good drawing hand, and mostly treat it as so. If I happen to hit my A or K on the flop, fantastic, I have something to work with; if not, then you may need to just consider chucking it depending on the situation. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif