PDA

View Full Version : What is the probability of a "doomsday" meteor hitting the Earth?

A_C_Slater
10-24-2004, 08:59 PM
This is the thought that keeps me up at night. Every since seeing that terrible movie "Deep Impact" I've been haunted
by the possibility. Does anyone know the probability of this happening? I can't find exact numbers anywhere.

Help me, please! I haven't slept since the 20th century.

uuDevil
10-24-2004, 09:40 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone know the probability of this happening? ...I haven't slept since the 20th century.

[/ QUOTE ]
Very close to 1-- somewhat greater than the probability you will be alive to see it. If you want to watch for it, try this NASA webpage. (http://neat.jpl.nasa.gov/)

Sleep tight!

A_C_Slater
10-24-2004, 09:47 PM
Thank you. At least now I can SEE the giant death rock heading for me. Better forewarning so I can prepare for it with my pranaraymic breathing exercises.

Exact numbers, I still need exact numbers.

500,000,000,000 to 1?

Oh God, I don't know!?

Isn't there any astrophycisists who play poker here?

o0mr_bill0o
10-24-2004, 09:52 PM
i recall from the last astro class i took that they tended to hit the earth about once every 100 million years on average.

A_C_Slater
10-24-2004, 09:56 PM
[ QUOTE ]
i recall from the last astro class i took that they tended to hit the earth about once every 100 million years on average.

[/ QUOTE ]

When did the last one hit!!?

DCIAce
10-24-2004, 10:11 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i recall from the last astro class i took that they tended to hit the earth about once every 100 million years on average.

[/ QUOTE ]

When did the last one hit!!?

[/ QUOTE ]

99,999,999 years 364 days and 12 hours ago.

A_C_Slater
10-24-2004, 10:27 PM
Shut up.

You're just trying to scare me.

I'm not stupid.

Seriously though, does anyone know when the last one really
hit?

Nottom
10-24-2004, 10:51 PM
[ QUOTE ]
When did the last one hit!!?

[/ QUOTE ]

If my dinosaur history is correct, around 65 million years ago.

A_C_Slater
10-24-2004, 11:31 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When did the last one hit!!?

[/ QUOTE ]

If my dinosaur history is correct, around 65 million years ago.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh good. That means I have 45 million years left, after I take advantage of cryo-freezing technology that is, yup,
ol' A.C. is gonna live forever.

A_C_Slater
10-24-2004, 11:32 PM
I mean, 35 million years left.

Ahem.

Allinlife
10-25-2004, 12:01 AM
apprently chances of you dying of strokes as of now are probably 10000 times more likely than earth blowing up.

SomethingClever
10-25-2004, 05:32 PM
AC, can you answer a long-standing question of mine?

Did you ever hook up with Jessie back at Bayside, or what?

Thanks, brother.

A_C_Slater
10-25-2004, 08:06 PM
[ QUOTE ]
AC, can you answer a long-standing question of mine?

Did you ever hook up with Jessie back at Bayside, or what?

Thanks, brother.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes I did. After I dumped her she ended up stripping in Vegas.

I always knew she would turn out to be a slut.

Nepa
10-25-2004, 10:57 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When did the last one hit!!?

[/ QUOTE ]

If my dinosaur history is correct, around 65 million years ago.

[/ QUOTE ]

If one didn't hit in 65 million years we are due.

tek
10-26-2004, 10:54 PM
Another idiot worrying about things nobody has any control over. You're going to die eventually anyway. Why worry about stupid shjt?

A_C_Slater
10-26-2004, 10:59 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Another idiot worrying about things nobody has any control over. You're going to die eventually anyway. Why worry about stupid shjt?

[/ QUOTE ]

I will not! You obviously aren't keeping up with the
latest trends in cryo-freezing technology.

Haven't you ever seen "Vanilla Sky?"

In another few hundred years humans will acheive space migration and I will be cryo-frozen in outer space by then
and live forever! So there.

Skeptic mortal!!

Cerril
10-27-2004, 02:23 AM
I think we're a couple 10s or 100s of thousands of years 'overdue' for a meteor hit that will wipe out a good number of representatives of most species. Probability that it'll happen in your lifetime is tiny.

Incidentally, we're pretty good at spotting stuff out there in space but we're not all that good. The last two things to pass really close (closer, I believe, than the one that got all the publicity around when those movies came out) weren't discovered until they'd passed us. So you probably won't see it coming if it hits close enough