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View Full Version : Are odds the same for everyone?

ariesone
10-22-2004, 11:38 PM
I know this may sound like a ridiculous question, but here is why I ask. I have been playing for about seven months on-line. I started to notice after about 3 months of playing that I never seemed to hit the flush. It seemed like everyone else hit one every once in awhile. Of course as my game advanced I started applying odds. It was then that I discovered the odds were 1.9 to 1 to hit the flush on the turn and 4.1 to 1 to hit the flush on the river. My initial response to that was BS. And the reason I say that is because of this. On two seperate occasions I tracked how many times I hit the flush when I was dealt suited hole cards and two of the same suit hit on the flop. Out of 207 hands when the scenario I just described was in play, I hit the flush exactly 5 times. Does that equate to the normal odds of hitting a flush on the turn and river? I don't think so, but then again, I am no math major.

Does anyone have this problem with any poker hands? And if so, do you adjust in anyway. As an example, for me I might calculate that my odds for hitting a flush on the turn is 4.5 to 1, not 1.9 to 1. Have I really gone off the deep end in seven short months?

Spectral Sequence
10-23-2004, 12:12 AM
Yes, odds are the same for everyone (barring far-fetched online poker conspiracy theories).

By the way, the figure of 1.9:1 odds you quote for hitting the flush when you have a 4-flush on the flop are for hitting by the river, not the turn. In other words, when you have two cards to come. The odds of hitting the flush on the turn (i.e. with 1 card to come) are 4.2:1.

dogmeat
10-23-2004, 02:45 AM
Just so I understand your problem here, you say you flopped a four-flush 207 times and only made a flush five times?

Lets see:

You will be dealt two suited cards every 3.25 hands
You will flop two or more of your suit every 7.48 flops
So this happens once every 24.31 hands

To get your sample of 207 hands, you are telling me you played 5032 hands

And out of those 5032, always staying to the river with your four-flush, you made exactly 5 flushes?

Now, go back to your thinking and tell me where you went wrong.

I believe you played 207 hands and made 5 flushes, or
I'm willing to believe you played 207 suited hands and made 5 flushes. How many times can you expect to make a flush out of those 207 times? Sit and figure it out for yourself. Now, are your results really that far out of line?

Mike Haven
10-23-2004, 09:04 AM
ariesone said:

On two seperate occasions I tracked how many times I hit the flush when I was dealt suited hole cards and two of the same suit hit on the flop. Out of 207 hands when the scenario I just described was in play, I hit the flush exactly 5 times

you said:

I'm willing to believe you played 207 suited hands and made 5 flushes. How many times can you expect to make a flush out of those 207 times? Sit and figure it out for yourself. Now, are your results really that far out of line?

if his description was correct, then he should have hit the flush 71 times, as you know

i would say he was one unlucky mother and, for his own sake, should give up chasing flushes, if not poker altogether - of course, for our sake, he should chase more and play more

ariesone
10-23-2004, 12:00 PM
Exactly Mike. I don't know how many hands I played to get those 207 flush opportunities. It may very well have been 5k. But even if it was 50k, the bottom line for me is that I only hit 5 flushes. And as you stated, it should have been a bunch more.

It is funny that when I started playing, I went in knowing that I am not a lucky person, never have been, so I was going to have to figure out how to deal with.

So at this point I am a firm believer that odds are not the same for everyone.

dogmeat
10-23-2004, 12:48 PM
No, Mike, what I said was I believe he played 207 suited hands, NOT that he flopped a flush draw 207 hands.

If he started suited 207 times, his making just 5 flushes is easily within the realm of possibility.

I think we all know he did not play 5000 hands, flop 207 4-flushes and make just 5.

Mike Haven
10-23-2004, 02:16 PM
No, Mike, what I said was I believe he played 207 suited hands, NOT that he flopped a flush draw 207 hands.

yes, i understood that

If he started suited 207 times, his making just 5 flushes is easily within the realm of possibility.

i agree - i make the average to be about 9

I think we all know he did not play 5000 hands, flop 207 4-flushes and make just 5.

he has said this is the case, twice

i made a note not to lend him my car

dogmeat
10-23-2004, 02:36 PM
Mike - LOL /images/graemlins/grin.gif