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View Full Version : Small Stakes Probability/Odds Question: Calling a Raise from the BB

poboys
10-21-2004, 11:18 AM
Long intro, but trying to document my thought process so that smarter people (than me) can comment.

While playing in a typical PP game (4-6 see the flop many times for 2 sb) I found myself in the sb and bb with a couple of limpers a raiser and the action is to me. I hold drawing hands (suited, connectors, suited connectors) that I would love to see a flop-for-free, but wouldn't normally play. My general rule was to not call a raise from the bb with a hand I normally wouldn't limp with... I've also read over and over again that pot odds don't drive smart decisions pre-flop EV does.

Yet I could not believe some of the odds I was getting in a very loose, multi-way game. So, rather than quickly post something up asking for advice, I searched this forum and found nothing. I then referenced the following:

Pr(4-flush|2-suited) = 0.1178
Pr(4-straight|2-connected) = .1028
Pr(4-flush and/or 4-straight|2-suited-connected) = .1910.

So, assuming that you will have the correct odds to draw out, if you hit your flop, I converted these probabilities to pot odds...

Suited-&gt;7.49:1
Connected-&gt;8.73:1
Suited&amp;Connected-&gt;4.24:1

It seems like the implied odds are also strong for these hands, and if the pot is giving the correct odds pre-flop, should't I be throwing one more bet into see the flop?

Comments? Am I missing an obvious point? Reference posts?