View Full Version : Holding AA, and having 2 opponents hold AA , KK ?

10-20-2004, 08:35 PM
Given: 9 handed B&M tournament. You hold AA and you are UTG
what are the odds that exactly 1 opponenent has KK and another opponent has AA.

What is the EV for AA in this situation?

Also, what is the probablity that I will get more than 1 vote (2 votes or greater for all you college students) for the "I love him [franklu99]" in the "What do you think of me" thread (given that I will not create multiple screennames to vote)?

link to thread in OOT (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1156991&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1)

10-26-2004, 07:17 AM
Keep in mind that this assumes you already have one AA, as you stated. We calculate the chance for it happening to two specific players, then multiply by "8 choose 2" (which = 28) to get the final answer.

2*((2/50)*(1/49) * (4/48)*(3/47)) * (1029/1035) * 28

which comes out to about 1 in 4136.

Pretty sure that's right, though I did it fast. BTW, the fact that you are UTG, or any other position, does not affect the calculation.

As for calculating the EV for AA in this situation, this is a much more difficult problem because it is not well-defined -- it depends on who your opponents are. To estimate it, you'd need to run millions of simulations using bots that approximated your opponents play. TTH can run simulations similar to this, but not this specific. Poki's Poker Academy should support this kind of thing in the future.


10-28-2004, 01:35 AM
I'm gonna guess your equity is somewhere around 40%. So, a three-way all in preflop showdown, you're really not getting significantly much the best of it. I didn't really calculate this, it's just a rough estimate based on how often KK will hit his set, and your fairly tiny chance of winning the pot outright...

Hope that's what you were asking, heh.