PDA

View Full Version : How to calculate expected best finish in a regular tournament?

Wee Stinker
10-19-2004, 10:34 AM
If I play one NL hold'em tournament every week for a year and each week there are exactly 2,000 entrants including me, is it possible to work out the following:

- my chance of winning one tournament in the year
- my chance of winning two or more tournaments
- my chance of making one final table
- my chance of making two or more final tables

Slightly different but along the same lines:
- what is my best finishing position likely to be (and how is this calculated)?

Assume that all players in each tourney are equally skilled.

Nepa
10-25-2004, 10:26 PM
[ QUOTE ]
If I play one NL hold'em tournament every week for a year and each week there are exactly 2,000 entrants including me, is it possible to work out the following:

- my chance of winning one tournament in the year
- my chance of winning two or more tournaments
- my chance of making one final table
- my chance of making two or more final tables

Slightly different but along the same lines:
- what is my best finishing position likely to be (and how is this calculated)?

Assume that all players in each tourney are equally skilled.

[/ QUOTE ]

to win 1 in 38.461538461538461538461538461538 for the year
winning two, I'm too tired to figure out

final table 1 in 4.2735042735042735042735042735043 for the year
2 or more final tables, I'm too tired to figure out also.

likely finish 1000th or 1001