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Jeremy J
10-18-2004, 04:44 PM
I know this is a rookie question, but can someone give me the math on how to figure out your odds of hitting your straight by the river when you've flopped an open ender.

TomCollins
10-18-2004, 05:31 PM
Percentage of missing:

(45-8)/45*(44-8)/44 = .6727.

So percentage of making is:

1-.6727 = .327.

So roughly 2-1.

Lost Wages
10-18-2004, 05:47 PM
/images/graemlins/blush.gif Must be sloppy math day.

It's (47-8)/47*(46-8)/46 = .685
1-.685 = .315
.685:.385 = ~2.2:1

Lost Wages

TomCollins
10-19-2004, 12:55 AM
Bah, you suck.

Vulpine
10-19-2004, 08:06 AM
There’s a quicker way to approximate this using the “rule of four.” You have 8 cards that can complete your two way straight draw by the river. Multiply these outs by 4 to get a 32% probability of completing your straight by the river. Convert this probability to the odds against making the draw by the taking (100 -32)/32 = 2.125. Most books will recommend that you not use these odds to make your decision because a turn card can dramatically change your situation. Of course the odds of making a two way straight draw on the turn are (47 unseen cards – 8 outs)/(8 outs) = 4.875 and the odds of making a two way straight draw on the river are (46 unseen cards – 8 outs)/(8 outs) = 4.75.

TomCollins
10-20-2004, 12:49 AM
Just remember this rule is an approximation and not exactly right. But your decisions are rarely going to be affected if you are off by a percent or two.

thomas_sfbay
10-20-2004, 09:42 AM
Multiply your outs (8) by 4 for a 32% chance of hitting the open ender. Granted this is a rough estimate but its within a couple of percentage points of being exact.

On the turn the same 8 outer would be a 16% chance... 8 outs times 2 = 16%.

Thomas

Huhmare
10-20-2004, 02:43 PM
Who wants to know the odds of getting the straight by the river? The odds from flop to turn and from turn to flop are more of a use. You can't know how many bets there is going to be on the turn

Jeremy J
10-20-2004, 07:05 PM
If your only in the hand with a couple players you can have a pretty good idea how many bets, and if you're short stacked that info helps to know if you should call in a big pot. But thanks for the constructive criticism. /images/graemlins/wink.gif