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View Full Version : Folders matters ....

HavanaBanana
10-16-2004, 10:21 PM
Two different? situations

1.) You are Small blind in a 10 handed game, all fold and you have two black tens, what is the chance that BB has two aces?

2.) You are Small blind H/U you have two black tens, what is the chance that BB has two aces?

reubenf
10-17-2004, 12:29 AM
In option 1, sixteen of the cards the BB doesn't hold (the folded cards) are less likely to contain aces than sixteen random cards. Therefore the BB's hand is more likely to contain aces.

TomCollins
10-18-2004, 12:04 AM
The looser the players you play against, the more option 1 is likely. But they aren't even that far off then.

axioma
10-18-2004, 08:18 AM
given that everyone folded to you, option 1 is more likely.

Mike Haven
10-18-2004, 05:55 PM
in the first case, if no one ever folded Ax then there would be a much greater chance that the BB had AA than in the HU game

if some people fold Ax if x is not another A then there would be an unquantifiably greater but nonetheless a greater chance that the BB had AA than in the HU game

HavanaBanana
10-19-2004, 06:03 PM
Amazingly the vote now stands at 5% 45% and 50%

Not much debating though, is it a case of everyone getting 2nd thoughts?

ToT

Cerril
10-20-2004, 05:43 AM
Depends on the game. Some games have people that'll play Ax or Axs, some games you won't see much lower than ATs and AJo... so in the first case it's more likely in the 10-handed game, in the second it's basically the same.

HavanaBanana
10-20-2004, 06:33 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Depends on the game. Some games have people that'll play Ax or Axs, some games you won't see much lower than ATs and AJo... so in the first case it's more likely in the 10-handed game, in the second it's basically the same.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I would by your argument, then in the second case one could also assume that AA always would be played but 22 and 33 etc would be folded in early position in those games....

The point here is not how big the difference is, but if there is a difference.

ToT

TomCollins
10-20-2004, 08:15 AM
So the odds are maybe .000001% higher. Wow, you proved a point that is meaningless. Congratulations.

Paul2432
10-20-2004, 03:30 PM
I answered "the same". Without knowing how people play the question is impossible to answer.

Paul