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View Full Version : Formula for % chance amt won is consistent with a given winrate


AliasMrJones
10-14-2004, 10:09 PM
I know the formula for determining RoR and for calculating max win/loss after n hours for a given confidence %. But I'm having trouble trying to go the other way.

A good winrate online is supposed to be 2 BB/hr. with a standard deviation of 15.

After n hours of play a player has a profit/loss of x. What is the formula for computing the % chance that this player is the player above (or at least over the long run has/will have the stats of the player above)?

madcaller
10-15-2004, 12:25 PM
Itís called hypothesis testing in statistics. I donít remember all the formulas from my stats class but hereís a quick explanation. In hypothesis testing you canít ever prove anything with absolute certainty you can only disprove things with a degree certainty. In this case for example you pose the hypothesis that your win rate is less than or equal 2BB/hr. You then have to choose a confidence interval of say 99% (the higher the number the more certain you conclusions will be. In your case you would have to run the test several times with different confidence levels until you find the level at where the test results change from fail to prove. A stats major can probably provide the calculations and a little more detail.

Hereís a web site that should be able to help you:
http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/logic_hypothesis.html