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well
10-12-2004, 06:39 AM
Could one of you please direct me to a site wich provides the probability of a tie/win/loss to all different two cards vs. two cards?
I would like the numbers to be rational, if that's possible.
I don't feel like typing each single combination into some calculator and copy-pasting the outcomes...

tw texas
10-12-2004, 11:37 PM
www.twodimes.net (http://www.twodimes.net)

well
10-15-2004, 12:37 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I don't feel like typing each single combination into some calculator and copy-pasting the outcomes...

[/ QUOTE ]

...and on this site I did not find anything useful besides the calculator I did not intend to use for this purpose.

Thanks anyway.

Mike Haven
10-15-2004, 01:41 PM
[ QUOTE ]

Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't feel like typing each single combination into some calculator and copy-pasting the outcomes...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

...and on this site I did not find anything useful besides the calculator I did not intend to use for this purpose.

Thanks anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

My guess is that no one else could have been bothered to do it either.

What use would such information be? Why do you need it? Maybe someone here could give you more relevant information or assistance if they knew a bit more about your base reasons for wanting such information.

jaeon
10-16-2004, 02:09 AM
i know this isn't exactly what you're asking for....but you might find it more helpful than a hand against hand ranking. someone was kind enough to lead me to it in the beginners forum yesterday.

Percentage of Pots Won with Hold'em Hands (http://gocee.com/poker/HE_Val_Sort.htm)

well
10-16-2004, 08:44 AM
Let me fist point out that I do not consider future betting. Just preflop all-in situations.

My guess is, someone who is able to use the source code could easliy make such a matrix.

And the reason I would like to have that data is to find out what hands one should
move in with (short-stacked or versus a short stack) in the late stages of a tournament.
This is because I don't believe that "the top n% of hands possible" is the correct answer.
Same for calling.

Regards.

Mike Haven
10-16-2004, 08:54 AM
i guessed that was what you really wanted

the point is that you don't know what the other person has, and therefore you only need to know that your hand will win against a random hand so many per cent (whatever you decide is your own risk point) of the time

the chart that jaeon pointed you to would give you that information

sillyarms
10-16-2004, 03:29 PM
I was playing around with "The System" as outlined in TPFAP and I didn't like the simplified way the hand groupings were set up So I did monte carlo simulations of each possible hand vs. one player holding a range of S&amp;M Group 1, and 2 hands. Which in a tournament are the kinds of hands I figure to get called with. Bear in mind this is just to get a rough idea and the numbers are off in a few spots but, here is what I came up with:

AA 83.3
KK 67.53
QQ 54.61
Aks 49.54
AKo 46.66
JJ 45.77
Aqs 40.26
TT 38.59
AQo 36.56
44 35.8
99 35.67
66 35.67
88 35.66
77 35.63
55 35.59
Ajs 35.45
33 34.6
22 33.97
KQs 33.63
A5s 33.12
Ats 32.86
A4s 32.69
A3s 32.63
A2s 32.16
A8s 32.11
A6s 32.11
A7s 32.01
A9s 31.92
QJs 31.56
Ajo 31.23
KJs 30.89
QTs 30.88
65s 30.74
54s 30.65
76s 30.54
JTs 30.44
87s 30.1
KTs 29.77
KQo 29.73
Q9s 29.69
T9s 29.62
A5o 29.48
J9s 29.45
86s 29.4
64s 29.4
75s 29.33
53s 29.18
Q8s 29.16
A4o 29.15
98s 29.12
T8s 28.86
A3o 28.84
J8s 28.83
K9s 28.77
K7s 28.77
97s 28.71
K6s 28.68
Ato 28.66
43s 28.58
K5s 28.55
A2o 28.52
85s 28.39
A8o 28.27
A7o 28.27
Q6s 28.26
T7s 28.25
Q5s 28.23
Q4s 28.17
96s 28.17
A6o 28.16
63s 28.15
K8s 28.06
Q7s 28.02
74s 27.99
A9o 27.98
J7s 27.67
K3s 27.66
Q3s 27.66
52s 27.64
QJo 27.63
K2s 27.6
65o 27.29
76o 27.28
Q2s 27.27
42s 27.26
J5s 27.23
K4s 27.21
T6s 27.12
32s 27.08
QTo 26.95
95s 26.89
54o 26.87
JTo 26.84
J6s 26.79
KJo 26.77
84s 26.72
73s 26.72
J2s 26.66
87o 26.64
J4s 26.42
62s 26.39
T5s 26.15
J3s 26.14
KTo 25.96
T4s 25.93
T9o 25.91
75o 25.79
J9o 25.71
86o 25.69
64o 25.69
Q9o 25.67
98o 25.57
53o 25.51
93s 25.49
97o 25.44
94s 25.42
T8o 25.36
43o 25.28
T3s 25.25
92s 25.22
83s 25.2
T2s 25.1
J8o 25.08
72s 25.01
82s 24.96
Q8o 24.94
K9o 24.73
K6o 24.71
Q6o 24.55
K8o 24.53
K7o 24.49
85o 24.49
63o 24.4
K5o 24.37
T7o 24.32
96o 24.3
74o 24.3
K4o 24.15
Q5o 24.12
Q7o 24.08
Q4o 24.05
J7o 24.02
52o 23.88
Q3o 23.74
42o 23.58
K3o 23.55
J5o 23.29
95o 23.28
Q2o 23.27
T6o 23.23
32o 23.18
J6o 23.17
K2o 23.08
84o 22.9
J4o 22.88
73o 22.81
62o 22.55
J3o 22.31
T5o 21.98
T4o 21.98
J2o 21.81
T3o 21.63
83o 21.61
94o 21.53
93o 21.48
82o 21.48
72o 21.22
T2o 21.07
92o 21.01

I'd really like a simulator that could give me the avg hand strength and hand potential on each street, but i'm dreaming.

silly

well
10-17-2004, 09:20 AM
Ok, suppose we're playing some restricted version of poker.

Player I antes \$1, player II antes \$2.
Now player I has two options: fold or raise to say \$n.
If player I chooses to do the latter, player II has option to fold or call.

Suppose player I has a strategy to raise with any two cards, and player II knows this.
Suppose player II calls any two cards with win probability p or higher.

Then the EV (expectation value) of player II would be -\$2 when he folds.
And if he raises, the EV would be p*\$n + (1-p)*-\$n = (2p-1)*\$n.
Now game theory dictates that p should be 1/2-1/n in order for the strategy to be optimal.

The appropriate hands could be found in the chart jaeon wrote about.

But whenever player I decides not to play all hands, these numbers are useless.
In order to find optimal strategies for both player additional information is needed.

And the table I am looking for yields exactly this information.

I hope this is clear.

Now something else: I remember a post of a couple of months ago which was about an algoritm for getting this kind of figures. The poster stated that he (or she) had came up with one that was really fast. I would like to have a detailed discription that I could work with.
So if anyone remembers who this was (or are you this person?), please reply.

Next Time.

well
10-17-2004, 09:23 AM
Hi silly,

what approach did you use to compare hands? I have done it several times in the past, but since the number of simulations should be very large, an as fast as possible procedure to compare hands is very important.
Is yours fast? And if so, how do you do it?

Thanks.

Nottom
10-17-2004, 11:47 AM
if you don't already have it I suggest playing with pokerstove. (Pokerstove.com) (http://www.pokerstove.com)

I'm not sure this is what you are looking for but is fun to play with and see how a hand stands up against a range of hands.

Nottom
10-17-2004, 11:50 AM
Also here are some other EV charts against a few ranges of hands (a 2+2er posted this a while back, but I can't remember who it was to give him the credit /images/graemlins/frown.gif)

Hand Set A: any random hand (Jazbo's results)
Hand Set B: any ace, any pair (favorite push-hands?)
Hand Set C: any pair, any ace except A6o-A2o, KQs, KJs, KTs, QJs (a more refined set of favorite push hands?)

rank Hand Set A Hand Set B Hand Set C
1 AAo: 0.852037 AAo: 0.868701 AAo: 0.852403
2 KKo: 0.823957 KKo: 0.717437 KKo: 0.725878
3 QQo: 0.799252 QQo: 0.694589 QQo: 0.690498
4 JJo: 0.774695 JJo: 0.671537 JJo: 0.657249
5 TTo: 0.750118 TTo: 0.648316 TTo: 0.624291
6 99o: 0.720573 AKs: 0.633812 AKs: 0.609668
7 88o: 0.69163 99o: 0.618106 AKo: 0.590514
8 AKs: 0.670446 AKo: 0.615859 99o: 0.587292
9 77o: 0.66236 AQs: 0.602706 AQs: 0.57245
10 AQs: 0.662089 88o: 0.594209 88o: 0.557937
11 AJs: 0.653927 AQo: 0.582808 AQo: 0.550712
12 AKo: 0.653201 AJs: 0.570817 AJs: 0.536638
13 ATs: 0.646024 77o: 0.568266 77o: 0.526918
14 AQo: 0.644318 AJo: 0.548855 AJo: 0.51257
15 AJo: 0.635633 66o: 0.543522 66o: 0.503295
16 KQs: 0.634004 ATs: 0.539245 ATs: 0.500597
17 66o: 0.632847 55o: 0.518897 55o: 0.480924
18 A9s: 0.627812 ATo: 0.515196 ATo: 0.473992
19 ATo: 0.627217 A9s: 0.498569 A9s: 0.456724
20 KJs: 0.625673 44o: 0.489243 44o: 0.45548
21 A8s: 0.619438 A9o: 0.471588 KQs: 0.435427
22 KTs: 0.617886 A8s: 0.468405 33o: 0.430012
23 KQo: 0.614558 33o: 0.45922 A8s: 0.427111
24 A7s: 0.60984 A8o: 0.439404 A9o: 0.426803
25 A9o: 0.607728 A7s: 0.439104 KJs: 0.424205
26 KJo: 0.605687 JTs: 0.435095 QJs: 0.417834
27 55o: 0.603249 QJs: 0.432201 JTs: 0.413598
28 QJs: 0.602592 KQs: 0.429669 KTs: 0.412861
29 K9s: 0.599885 QTs: 0.428981 QTs: 0.409806
30 A5s: 0.599229 22o: 0.428917 22o: 0.40465
31 A6s: 0.599058 KJs: 0.426322 KQo: 0.404241
32 A8o: 0.598726 KTs: 0.423085 A7s: 0.400662
33 KTo: 0.597389 T9s: 0.421997 T9s: 0.40004
34 QTs: 0.594676 J9s: 0.41557 A8o: 0.39516
35 A4s: 0.590336 A6s: 0.412231 J9s: 0.394774
36 A7o: 0.588412 98s: 0.410088 KJo: 0.392281
37 K8s: 0.583123 Q9s: 0.409378 Q9s: 0.390815
38 A3s: 0.582203 A7o: 0.408054 K9s: 0.389992
39 QJo: 0.581347 T8s: 0.407644 A5s: 0.388996
40 K9o: 0.578119 A5s: 0.406675 98s: 0.387872
41 A5o: 0.576965 JTo: 0.403909 QJo: 0.385735
42 A6o: 0.576825 K9s: 0.40339 T8s: 0.385036
43 Q9s: 0.576643 87s: 0.401158 A6s: 0.384929
44 K7s: 0.575377 J8s: 0.401144 JTo: 0.382016
45 JTs: 0.575279 QJo: 0.400481 KTo: 0.380037
46 A2s: 0.573789 KQo: 0.397427 J8s: 0.379669
47 QTo: 0.572908 QTo: 0.39714 A4s: 0.379591
48 44o: 0.570228 97s: 0.395388 QTo: 0.377687
49 A4o: 0.567297 Q8s: 0.394819 87s: 0.37745
50 K6s: 0.566407 KJo: 0.393954 Q8s: 0.375597
51 K8o: 0.560202 T7s: 0.392131 K8s: 0.374595
52 Q8s: 0.560177 A4s: 0.391515 97s: 0.372826
53 A3o: 0.558446 76s: 0.390746 K6s: 0.372184
54 K5s: 0.557929 KTo: 0.390595 76s: 0.372178
55 J9s: 0.556625 T9o: 0.390155 A3s: 0.371324
56 Q9o: 0.553604 K8s: 0.38856 K7s: 0.370786
57 JTo: 0.552477 86s: 0.386708 T7s: 0.368944
58 K7o: 0.551874 K7s: 0.385625 86s: 0.368841
59 A2o: 0.549286 J7s: 0.385609 T9o: 0.36802
60 K4s: 0.548846 J9o: 0.383063 A7o: 0.366848
61 Q7s: 0.543023 A3s: 0.381557 65s: 0.366508
62 K6o: 0.542233 96s: 0.380882 K5s: 0.365975
63 K3s: 0.54055 K6s: 0.380852 96s: 0.364085
64 T9s: 0.540275 A6o: 0.379236 Q6s: 0.363528
65 J8s: 0.540156 Q7s: 0.379169 J7s: 0.363448
66 33o: 0.536931 65s: 0.377947 A2s: 0.362706
67 Q6s: 0.536126 98o: 0.377458 J9o: 0.362007
68 Q8o: 0.535998 T6s: 0.377398 T6s: 0.360074
69 K5o: 0.53314 Q6s: 0.377175 Q7s: 0.359384
70 J9o: 0.532512 Q9o: 0.376213 K4s: 0.358869
71 K2s: 0.532117 T8o: 0.374833 Q9o: 0.357511
72 Q5s: 0.527694 A5o: 0.373521 Q5s: 0.357398
73 T8s: 0.523344 K5s: 0.372262 54s: 0.356239
74 K4o: 0.523275 75s: 0.372141 75s: 0.356145
75 J7s: 0.523248 A2s: 0.371275 K9o: 0.356027
76 Q4s: 0.518553 J6s: 0.37076 98o: 0.355184
77 Q7o: 0.517657 K9o: 0.369575 J6s: 0.354933
78 T9o: 0.515317 Q5s: 0.368592 A5o: 0.35365
79 J8o: 0.514902 87o: 0.368155 85s: 0.352519
80 K3o: 0.514257 85s: 0.36804 T8o: 0.352024
81 Q6o: 0.510241 J8o: 0.367665 K3s: 0.351458
82 Q3s: 0.510192 54s: 0.365187 J5s: 0.351416
83 98s: 0.508008 J5s: 0.364974 Q4s: 0.350273
84 T7s: 0.50639 K4s: 0.364348 64s: 0.34944
85 J6s: 0.506059 95s: 0.362213 A6o: 0.349098
86 K2o: 0.505087 97o: 0.361791 95s: 0.347766
87 22o: 0.50334 Q8o: 0.360678 J8o: 0.3459
88 Q2s: 0.50169 Q4s: 0.360674 J4s: 0.344284
89 Q5o: 0.501201 64s: 0.359884 87o: 0.344273
90 J5s: 0.499868 T5s: 0.35859 K2s: 0.343822
91 T8o: 0.497213 T7o: 0.358288 T5s: 0.343757
92 J7o: 0.496819 A4o: 0.357254 A4o: 0.343508
93 Q4o: 0.491277 76o: 0.357173 Q3s: 0.342832
94 97s: 0.491177 J4s: 0.357052 Q8o: 0.34129
95 J4s: 0.490705 K3s: 0.356324 K8o: 0.339623
96 T6s: 0.489407 74s: 0.353963 T4s: 0.339354
97 J3s: 0.482316 K8o: 0.35376 97o: 0.33917
98 Q3o: 0.482194 T4s: 0.353475 53s: 0.338841
99 98o: 0.48097 86o: 0.352724 74s: 0.338648
100 87s: 0.479363 Q3s: 0.352646 76o: 0.338626
101 T7o: 0.479081 J7o: 0.351098 K6o: 0.336951
102 J6o: 0.478443 K7o: 0.350695 J3s: 0.336835
103 96s: 0.474283 84s: 0.349813 K7o: 0.335606
104 J2s: 0.473782 J3s: 0.34902 Q2s: 0.335165
105 Q2o: 0.472954 K2s: 0.348201 84s: 0.335088
106 T5s: 0.472163 53s: 0.346731 86o: 0.334934
107 J5o: 0.471809 A3o: 0.346597 T7o: 0.334884
108 T4s: 0.465305 96o: 0.346298 A3o: 0.3346
109 97o: 0.462978 K6o: 0.345598 65o: 0.332685
110 86s: 0.462433 T3s: 0.345439 T3s: 0.331932
111 J4o: 0.461864 Q2s: 0.344518 63s: 0.331813
112 T6o: 0.46092 Q7o: 0.343993 43s: 0.330534
113 95s: 0.457219 94s: 0.34389 K5o: 0.330441
114 T3s: 0.456925 65o: 0.343729 94s: 0.330436
115 76s: 0.453718 T6o: 0.34255 96o: 0.329697
116 J3o: 0.452755 Q6o: 0.3419 J2s: 0.329159
117 87o: 0.450508 63s: 0.341299 J7o: 0.328611
118 T2s: 0.448395 J2s: 0.340887 Q6o: 0.328314
119 85s: 0.44545 93s: 0.33867 93s: 0.325807
120 96o: 0.444913 43s: 0.33766 A2o: 0.3253
121 J2o: 0.443485 75o: 0.337437 T6o: 0.325271
122 T5o: 0.442509 T2s: 0.337301 T2s: 0.324283
123 94s: 0.43862 K5o: 0.336543 Q7o: 0.32402
124 75s: 0.436755 A2o: 0.335571 K4o: 0.322831
125 T4o: 0.435041 73s: 0.335466 54o: 0.321911
126 93s: 0.432643 J6o: 0.335241 Q5o: 0.321886
127 86o: 0.432409 85o: 0.33291 75o: 0.321674
128 65s: 0.431334 Q5o: 0.332851 52s: 0.320948
129 84s: 0.427016 83s: 0.331219 73s: 0.320877
130 95o: 0.426691 92s: 0.330518 J6o: 0.319385
131 T3o: 0.425946 54o: 0.330241 92s: 0.318174
132 92s: 0.424152 J5o: 0.329216 85o: 0.317667
133 76o: 0.423227 K4o: 0.328023 83s: 0.317427
134 74s: 0.418493 52s: 0.327759 J5o: 0.315777
135 T2o: 0.416684 95o: 0.326483 K3o: 0.314888
136 54s: 0.414534 82s: 0.325903 64o: 0.314505
137 85o: 0.414275 64o: 0.324395 Q4o: 0.314258
138 64s: 0.413333 Q4o: 0.324329 62s: 0.313897
139 83s: 0.408735 T5o: 0.322591 42s: 0.312957
140 94o: 0.406711 62s: 0.322283 82s: 0.312573
141 75o: 0.40512 J4o: 0.320689 95o: 0.31243
142 82s: 0.402716 K3o: 0.319379 J4o: 0.308142
143 73s: 0.400359 42s: 0.318872 T5o: 0.307999
144 93o: 0.400195 74o: 0.31797 K2o: 0.306695
145 65o: 0.399443 T4o: 0.317097 Q3o: 0.306286
146 53s: 0.39693 72s: 0.316582 32s: 0.304503
147 63s: 0.395336 Q3o: 0.315681 53o: 0.303372
148 84o: 0.394468 84o: 0.313391 T4o: 0.303309
149 92o: 0.390979 J3o: 0.312037 74o: 0.303023
150 43s: 0.386419 K2o: 0.310618 72s: 0.302883
151 74o: 0.385498 53o: 0.310492 J3o: 0.300162
152 72s: 0.381559 32s: 0.309713 84o: 0.299082
153 54o: 0.381553 T3o: 0.308441 Q2o: 0.298062
154 64o: 0.380105 Q2o: 0.306915 63o: 0.295713
155 52s: 0.378493 94o: 0.306866 T3o: 0.295358
156 62s: 0.37669 63o: 0.304498 43o: 0.294601
157 83o: 0.374838 J2o: 0.303267 94o: 0.29395
158 42s: 0.36829 93o: 0.301252 J2o: 0.291929
159 82o: 0.368277 43o: 0.3009 93o: 0.289012
160 73o: 0.366023 T2o: 0.299667 T2o: 0.287156
161 53o: 0.362648 73o: 0.298163 52o: 0.284284
162 63o: 0.360776 83o: 0.293484 73o: 0.284069
163 32s: 0.359844 92o: 0.292463 92o: 0.280829
164 43o: 0.351459 52o: 0.290183 83o: 0.280242
165 72o: 0.345836 82o: 0.287756 62o: 0.2766
166 52o: 0.342846 62o: 0.284141 42o: 0.275857
167 62o: 0.340751 42o: 0.280797 82o: 0.275057
168 42o: 0.331998 72o: 0.277943 32o: 0.266933
169 32o: 0.323032 32o: 0.271115 72o: 0.264864

ddubois
10-18-2004, 07:10 PM
I think the best one is: