View Full Version : What's the odds?

10-09-2004, 04:05 PM
Let's see if any of you probability gurus can figure the odds on this one. Playing online hold'em I was just dealt K /images/graemlins/spade.gif and K /images/graemlins/club.gif two hands in a row. I'm no good at figuring probabilities, but I think that this one works out at 48,400 to 1 just to get any two K's twice in a row. To get the same two K's twice in a row must be astronomical.

10-09-2004, 10:41 PM
If you said "Gee, I wonder what the odds are that I get kings the next hand and the hand after that" then your odds are correct. But if you get KK and say "gee I wonder what the odds are that I get kings the next hand" then its just 221-1, not that spectacular. If you want the same exact cards the odds are one in 1326.

10-09-2004, 11:15 PM
The odds of getting exactly the KC and KS twice is 1326 squared=1,758,276 to 1.

10-10-2004, 01:46 PM
No clue. All I know is that the chance of being dealt KK is 0.90%.

10-10-2004, 09:30 PM
now you have me interested....
In this years WSOP is was dealt exactly the Ad,Qd on the very first two hands. (Not related, I was eliminated a day and a half later with those same two cards)
I was of the impression that each new deal, the probability of two specific cards was the same as on the previous deal.
Obviously no math guy, so which is it: 1326 or 1326 squared?

10-11-2004, 12:19 AM
depends how you look at it: the odds of getting the same hand twice the first 2 hands are 1 in 1326. notice that this means you could have ANY 2 cards the first hand, so long as the second hand matches the first one.

if you want a specific hand twice in a row, then it's (1/1326)^2

10-11-2004, 12:37 AM
Here's the thing: the odds of a hand duplicating the previous hand are 1/1326, but you're only going to notice it when it happens.

say you play 100 hands. the odds that you at some point duplicate consecutive hands are about 7%.

say you play 200 hands. then it's about 14%

500 hands: 31%

1000 hands: 53%

1000 hands only about 12 hands a day for a month, so if you play much at all it's not all that surprising that it happens occasionally.

10-11-2004, 03:26 AM
I thought the odds of getting any specific pocket pair is 220:1. if that is true then getting KK once, is not a .9% chance, it is a .45% chance. or am i missing something.

Jim /images/graemlins/spade.gif