View Full Version : estimating odds based on probable holdings.

10-08-2004, 12:54 AM
Okay, bear with me.

Say you hold A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifA /images/graemlins/club.gif
the board reads= T /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

You have two opponents, one of whom flashes you
the K /images/graemlins/spade.gif3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and the other flashes you
the 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Given perfect knowledge of the hand you can make
the best possible play based on pot size and opponent

Had they not flashed their cards, you must consider
that they may have nothing, two pair, trips, pair
plus flush draw, pair plus backdoor flush/straight draw,
and so forth. You get some clue by the way the hand has
been played.

At what point, if your read is good enough, can you
adjust you probalilities based on what the opponent
holds? What if you are only 98% sure? 90% sure? 75%?

Admittedly, there will not be a ton of pots where it
makes enough of a difference to have a significant
impact on the proper play, but from a technical
standpoint the principal is important.