View Full Version : Sirius Satellite Raido (SIRI)

Joe Tall
10-06-2004, 09:01 AM
I've been a Sirius Subscriber since January. It is a fantasitc product.

Howard Stern Announcement (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041006/nyw109_1.html)

Joe Tall

10-06-2004, 10:00 AM
I just heard his announcement on the way to work. Would it be too late to invest in SIRI now since?

Anadrol 50
10-06-2004, 10:03 AM
Now I can finally get out of this pos...

Joe Tall
10-06-2004, 10:08 AM
It is going to spike today, however if you followed the XM ( XMSR (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=XMSR&t=2y) ) radio Stock, you'll see it hit a high of near $40. Sirius has currently spiked to just over $4.

I have nearly 3000 shares; today is an intestign day for me. About a month after I had Sirius radio, I started buying stock. I have Sirius Radio on now I type this, it's completely addicting; a great product. With the NFL package and now Howard Stern, I think it's going to be a sure buy right now.

Oh, and it was my brother who bought me Sirius as a gift. He is and has been a XM radio subscriber for a couple of years and bought and sold XM stock over it's climb. For what that is worth.

Joe Tall

Joe Tall
10-06-2004, 10:15 AM
Now I can finally get out of this pos... \

You may regret that. It's sure to out sell XM now.

Joe Tall

Anadrol 50
10-06-2004, 11:12 AM
Look at how much the company is valued at now...over 4 billion!!! That is pretty high for a company with revenue of 30 million. This company will take years (if ever) to reach a profit....The product kicks ass....the stock is an overvalued piece of crap....I am glad I got out today at break even...

PS I was forced to buy this by a relative who gave me the $

10-06-2004, 11:37 AM
I'm not sure that Stern has the ability to get new customers to subsrcible to a whole new medium. My brother bought Sirius, mainly because they claimed that they were commercial free when he bought it. A few weeks later XM went commercial free, and now apparently Sirius has gone back on their claim.

Seems like a cash flow problem when they need to go back on their commercial free claim.

Joe Tall
10-06-2004, 03:25 PM
and now apparently Sirius has gone back on their claim.

Huh? They are commerical free, always have been.

Joe Tall

10-06-2004, 10:16 PM
Are you sure? I had it in my car for a cross country trip recently and heard a crap load of commercials. (on Sirius stations too, not just syndicated ones)

10-07-2004, 04:48 PM
I head the Howard Stern news yesterday, and it seems like a no brainer purchase. I setup an etrade account today (have only 401k until today) just to purchase SIRI stock. However, etrade doesn't let you buy stock that is <$5 per share for the first 7 days after an account is open!

In the meantime, I lost 5% today... and now I'm waiting for the stock to hit $5 or 7 days.

- Jason

Ray Zee
10-07-2004, 10:05 PM
some of the reviews of those that know about the stock seem to thnk the company wont make it with its expenses no matter how many more subscribers it gets within reason. likely to find this stock gets put into bankrupcy to eliminate stockholders equity and then see it evolve into something profitable. i would trade it but not hold it for a long time.

Anadrol 50
10-08-2004, 08:39 AM
Ray is right....

10-08-2004, 12:54 PM
I also agree with Ray. I bought into Sirius around $1 a year and a half ago and bought XMSR at $2.50 around thanksgiving a couple years back. Felt at the time they were a little too beat up, and when I bought Sirius there was a decent gap between XM and SIRI. I've sold both awhile back (SIRI @ 1.80 XM @ 10, held onto some, not much, XM shares). Anyway, if anything I would short SIRI at 4, the cash flow and subscriber expectations do not support $4 at this time (definitely not a $4.6B company at this point, even considering expectation). But even shorting is high risk with this stock, so ultimately I don't think I would touch it. When I bought SIRI at $1 I considered it really to be a gamble, think both XM and SIRI are relatively overpriced.

10-08-2004, 01:11 PM
I enjoy Howard and all and was listening when he made the annoucement, but as far as the stock goes, seems like a classic case of "buy on the rumor, sell on the news". Buying into feeding frenzies is generally not a good idea. As Ray pointed out, this is probably a great trading stock, much like the profitless internet stocks were in '99, but not a long term hold for the same reason the internet stocks weren't. Selling at 130X sales is a weeeee bit pricy. This has Howard's success priced in 10X over.

Anadrol 50
10-08-2004, 02:19 PM
I head the Howard Stern news yesterday, and it seems like a no brainer purchase. I setup an etrade account today (have only 401k until today) just to purchase SIRI stock. However, etrade doesn't let you buy stock that is <$5 per share for the first 7 days after an account is open!

In the meantime, I lost 5% today... and now I'm waiting for the stock to hit $5 or 7 days.

- Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

That is funny...

10-13-2004, 12:19 AM
looking at the market cap on both sirius and xm these stocks cant survive w/ the cash flow and revenue they currently have. There will be a fallout eventually, something must happen. I've havent seen a stock this overpriced since the tech boom of 99. this bubble will pop just the same. buying these stocks at the current share price is like playing 2-7 off against aces w/ 2 aces on the flop. ur gonna lose.

69 <- name not indicative of market knowledge.

10-13-2004, 11:08 AM
Surely you do realize that you can't compare stock prices across companies. Surely, if you're investing in stocks, you realize that for a comparison to mean anything *at all* you need to know the number of shares outstanding. If you know that company A and company B are both 'worth' the exact same amount, knowing that company A's shares sell for $10, and company B's sell for $200, you still have *no idea* which is a better investment until you find out how many shares are outstanding.

10-13-2004, 12:56 PM
As I work in the industry, subscribe to both, and have a good hand on the pulse of satellite radio, I will offer my expertise to any and all who will listen.

For the record, I am a Manufacturing Rep. for Clarion Car Audio-USA, who is a Sirius satellite member. I have a Clarion deck in my car, w/ Sirius...a Clarion plug and play at home, a Delphi XM at home, and a XM Commander in my truck, going AUX in. I know, sounds complicated, but I have been doing this for years.

Is Sirius a good stock...absolutely. People said cable and satellite TV would fail, and they are growing daily. People said cell phones would fail...who here does not have at least one? Satellite radio is the future, and a bright one. Sirius has huge investors, and has bigtime capital to secure them thru physcal 2005.

Is XM good stock? Probably so....I have both, but I think Sirius is much better.

Line-up differences...

Sirius is all about music, and all the music channels are commercial free....anything that could be piped in thru another company, may or may not have commercials. Sirius has NFL, college sports, and now Howard Stern. Comedy 147 is awesome, and they music is the best I have heard. They have 2 satellites that roam, and a large number of repeaters, so drop-out rarely happens. Usually a drop, is a stream update. I love Sirius...and like I said, I have both. Sirius is $12.99/month on the basic plan. With that...you get a FREE streaming account, to listen via the internet on any computer you log onto w/ highspeed!!! This is an awesome selling feature, and makes work fun when you are not in CRP.

XM....tons of commercials, good content, college sports, ACC especially, awesome comedy channel, XM150....and they have NASCAR exclusively till the end of 2005. $9.99/month on the basic plan, but you have to pay for the stream account, and their streaming SUCKS.

How can you get Satellite Radio in your car.....
1. Direct plug...replace your factory deck, add a box and antenna and play direct.
2. Plug-N-Play...the big ugly units that you can take in and out of car, home, boat, etc. This is good for people who are all over the place, and too cheap for multiple subscriptions... It works either FM modulated(plays thru the FM station on your dial), or has to be run into an AUX audio jack on your factory or aftermarket deck.
3. FM mod, w/ heads up....this is a permanent mount, FM pc...kinda like the XM commander, or the Clarion DSC920S/SIRCL1 combo.
4. listen via the internet
5. listen to a PNP kit via your home audio system.
6. listen to a PNP via a boombox


I love Sirius....Satellite radio is here, and you may see new brands coming. Sirius will be streaming music videos to the car/computer 1st Qtr 2005.....and movies to come.

Not sure what XMs new deals are....I will do some more research.

Email me if you want to get hooked up....I have access to alot of stuff.

I hope this gives you guys some insight....i will be happy to answer Qs, emails, etc......

10-13-2004, 01:01 PM
Also....on the claim of commercial free....

You have to remember, both companies can only control commercials, where they own the channel or programming in question.

All "SIRIUS" music channels are commercial free, as well as anything else that is SIRIUS programmed. Anything that is piped into Sirius, from someone else(like cable channels, ESPN, news, etc) can have all the commercials they want.

More of XM is piped into XM, so you have a ton more commercials. You listen to comedy 150 on XM, and you will get a 5 min. commercial block, almost every hour.

Sirius is much better, and they have much better technology.

Your Mom
10-20-2004, 12:14 AM
Just a note regarding people "in the know." I don't really know a whole lot about who is good and who isn't, but the motley fool likes SIRI.

10-20-2004, 08:43 PM
Look at SIRI # of os shares compared to xmsr # of shares

xmsr-204.4 million
siri-1.237 billion

SIRI has 6x the os stock as xmsr.

Your Mom
10-20-2004, 11:35 PM
I understand the concept and I am not saying the fool is right or wrong. I'm just passing along the info. They make a decent case for liking the stock if you read the article though.

10-21-2004, 05:12 PM
I think it is the old: "good company, bad stock" story. Mgmt is paying huge $$s for content (the NFL - who is going to listen to games on the radio as opposed to watching on the TV - Howard, etc) because they need to gambooool in order to make this work. They'll just issue more and more stock to pay for all these bets and the current stockholders will probably get screwed.

10-23-2004, 09:46 AM
I have also read that any time SIRI wants to raise funds they just issue more shares to sell...I think they did this a few days after the Stern announcement...Personally I bought the stock at $4 and have lost a little as it is about $3.90...I do think that Stern will turn out alot of new listeners for SIRI which will suprise all the SIRI haters out there...

Joe Tall
11-23-2004, 05:33 PM
Did anyone get in on the 'pop'. I'm out for now sold at $6.67 doubling my investment.

Joe Tall

11-23-2004, 06:46 PM

I was going to buy at 3.90, and didn't for some dumb reason. Now I'm sitting here as it's at 6.72 and waiting for the time to get back in.

What price do you think would be good to buy at?

Ray Zee
11-23-2004, 06:56 PM
the time to buy will be after they go into bankrupcy and obliterate all the stockholders equity. then they reorganize and issue new shares. then take a look.
now they are something like a seven billion dollar company based on market capitalization. with no real earnings. where is their future. no matter how good the product is people arent going to pay 100 bucks a month or buy ten subscriptions.
besides this will be like fm radio was. few ads at first then too many.

11-23-2004, 07:06 PM
This company isnt going bankrupt.. they are sittin on 800 mil in cash. They WILL have 5 mil subscribers in 1 year. They will be bringin in 600 mil a year on subs alone then add the advertising they will be selling. In a few years they will be profiiting over 1 billion year ez. I got in at 3.80.. just bought more today at 6.41... this suckas gonna go.

Ray Zee
11-23-2004, 10:49 PM
they have 800,000 now getting to 5 million is a stretch, so you lose much credibility on that. plus the company is valued at about one quarter as much as fed ex. so how many think this company that is losing money is worth one quarter of fed ex.

11-24-2004, 09:25 AM
Im long 1000 at $4.02 have moved my stop up to $5

11-24-2004, 04:06 PM
Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. slipped more than 10 percent in Wednesday trading after a notable 2+2 author downgraded the stock and told investors to take profits following a three-month run-up.

Author Ray Zee cut Sirius to "Neutral" from "Overweight, saying he believes the stock's price is "much closer" to reflecting its near-term growth opportunity.
He also noted that Sirius shares have more than doubled since Sept. 30, compared with a 3 percent increase in the Standard & Poor's 500 index. In recent activity, Sirius dropped 7 percent, or 47 cents, to $6.24, with more than twice the average shares changing hands on the Nasdaq.
The decline comes a day after Sirius surged to its highest price this year as the company renewed expectations of reaching 1 million subscribers by year-end.
Sirius on Tuesday said it passed 800,000 subscribers earlier this week and remains on track to hit a million users through December. Shares climbed 12.3 percent to close at $6.71 -- nearly three times a September low of $2.27.
But Zee said profit-taking is a "prudent" strategy since Sirius' stock is susceptible to "minor hiccups." He said while Sirius now has to add 80 percent more subscribers per day in order to reach its goal of 1 million -- a likely growth during the holiday season -- that acceleration limits the room to beat expectations, which could pressure shares.
The author, however, said rival XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. -- which has about three times as many subscribers as Sirius -- presents less risk and potential for better reward.
"We continue to see substantial opportunity in the satellite radio sector, but now believe the better risk/reward is at XM, which has more subs, and we believe a faster turn to free cash flow profits and a one-year technology lead," he wrote in a research note to investors.
Shares of XM added 9 cents to trade at $36.75 on half its normal volume in recent activity on the Nasdaq, edging on a 52-week high of $37, its highest price in four years.
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11-24-2004, 04:26 PM
5 million is not a stretch... howard stern doesn start until Jan 2006 and he is expected to bring 3-4 million. Add the "other" people to that and any estimate less then 5 mil would be a stretch.

11-24-2004, 07:16 PM
I, too, am skeptical. However, I remember the days when I defiantly declared "It's only coffee" about Starbucks and "It's only books" about Amazon....and now "It's only a search engine" about Google.

Can anybody draw a relative comparison to SIRI's current valuation and the valuations of some of the high profile tech companies of the late 90's?

11-24-2004, 08:59 PM
This article was posted today on the fool.com, check it out.


Lawrence Ng
11-25-2004, 06:41 AM
It is still worth it to buy Sirius right now or should I wait?


Lawrence Ng
11-25-2004, 06:55 AM
I, too, am skeptical. However, I remember the days when I defiantly declared "It's only coffee" about Starbucks and "It's only books" about Amazon....and now "It's only a search engine" about Google.

Can anybody draw a relative comparison to SIRI's current valuation and the valuations of some of the high profile tech companies of the late 90's?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have often bought stocks and went really with gut feeling as my final decision and basically how confident I was about it. Some have worked out nicely (like Ballard, and a small company named Microsoft) and some not so nicely (like a company that designed some glow in the dark stick that would last over 24 hours).

I am not looking for the next big thing per say, but I do believe in taking good chances and opportunities and often, even being quite risky, I am comfortable enough to invest in them.

I love Google, simply because from an end user perspective this is by the far the best, friendliest, and effective search engine available. So I think it's a sure buy.


11-25-2004, 11:36 AM

I agree that satellite radio is here to stay. Do you think both XM and sirius will thrive or do you think one will dominate? Until the Stern announcement my guess would have been that XM will eventually dominate the market.

greg nice
11-27-2004, 02:03 AM
now is the time to short siri

11-30-2004, 04:40 AM
Does anyone know of the companies that are manufacturing the recievers for SIRIUS (not necessarily the brand on the reciever)?

Perhaps this is another way to play the stock?

11-30-2004, 09:14 AM
There are many many manufacturers

Check em out (http://www.sirius.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=Sirius/CachedPage&c=Gateway&cid=1066857398016)

11-30-2004, 07:53 PM
I started playing the market for fun with a couple thousand and gambled a while back and put it all in Sirius at 2.10. Good gamble. Anyone can buy, not everyone can sell, however...

12-02-2004, 03:42 AM
I had about 600 shares at $2.80. Today I cashed out 250 of them to clear all my buy in. I will let the rest freeroll for awhile but I would surprised if it stays around $7. The market cap is just plain ridiculous.

12-02-2004, 12:28 PM

I bought at 4 and sold at 6.5.

I'm usually a long term holder and not a speculator. I think Ray Zee is right. The company is overvalued.

The Howard Stern thing is nice, but there is no guarantee that it will create massive profits for them.

12-02-2004, 11:28 PM
Closed at $7.26 today after being as high as $7.74. Seems to be lots of AM buys and PM sells. I'm holding for now. News of Stern coming early or a Toyota deal is likely to send it over $10 -- at which point I'll take my profits.

12-07-2004, 10:45 AM
Damn Im loving life right now /images/graemlins/smile.gif

12-07-2004, 11:41 AM
Me too!!

12-07-2004, 01:40 PM
I sold 400 share today @ 8.77, taking most of "MY" money off the table. Holding 600 on a virtual freeroll for a while to see what happens............ /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

12-07-2004, 06:21 PM
wuss... I still cant figure out how anybody could consider selling a stock that hasnt gone down in weeks! I mean for cryin out loud.. at least put like a 75 cent stop loss on it or sumtin. You'll be buying back at 9.50 in the am.

Lawrence Ng
12-07-2004, 06:31 PM
Well, in less than a week I've had it jump from $6.91 to $9.01 today. It surpassed the 52 week high.

I'm not touching it. I'm gonna let it ride. The feeling with Sirius is that good things are gonna happen. Hopefully there will be more automobile manufacturers that sign on too with Sirius.


12-07-2004, 07:11 PM
wuss... I still cant figure out how anybody could consider selling a stock that hasnt gone down in weeks! I mean for cryin out loud.. at least put like a 75 cent stop loss on it or sumtin. You'll be buying back at 9.50 in the am.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its not like I went short or something.....

Remember you can never go broke taking a profit. That is a rule to live by in the market.

I am still long 600 in my regular account and 200 in my Roth I essentially sold 1/3 of my position after it rose 120%.

I have been greedy in the past and it is not the right way to play the market. I owned a stock at $.87 and rode it up to $13 where I sold 100 shrs, sold another 100 at $11, sold 500 more at $4 and still own the rest at $.80. I got greedy.......... sux for me.

Also, as great as the stock has been, you have to be crazy not to see that it is at THE VERY LEAST fully valued, if not way overvalued. A mkt cap of 11 billion for a company losing money is nuts, sure it may work out like amazon did and reach its full potential maybe even 30 million customers within 10 years, but chances are good that that may not happen. If I am wrong and it hits $20 a share next year great! I still have 800 shares total, if it doesnt and it falls back to the $6 range thats ok too.
What happens if it is NOT added to QQQQ on the 13th? I suspect there will be a lot of fund selling........

To quote Teddy KGB, I am now playing the stock with their money /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Furthermore I wanted the gain in 2004 to offset some losses.

Joe Tall
12-08-2004, 11:01 AM
Predictions anyone?

Close at $5.80.

Then I'm buying again!

Joe Tall

12-08-2004, 11:03 AM
wuss... I still cant figure out how anybody could consider selling a stock that hasnt gone down in weeks!

[/ QUOTE ]
Maybe just a bad feeling....
I mean for cryin out loud.. at least put like a 75 cent stop loss on it or sumtin.

[/ QUOTE ]
Stops dont work when stocks gap

You'll be buying back at 9.50 in the am.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I said yesterday I think this is not that bad, it basically had to happen. If it stays over $6 it is fine

12-08-2004, 11:29 AM
I sold 400 share today @ 8.77, taking most of "MY" money off the table. Holding 600 on a virtual freeroll for a while to see what happens............ /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Very good move. It plummeted this morning. I'm feeling a little better about selling at 6.5.

12-08-2004, 01:28 PM

Joe Tall
12-08-2004, 03:11 PM
www.clearstation.com (http://www.clearstation.com)

Been there, done that.

Welcome to the forum,
Joe Tall

12-08-2004, 03:22 PM
wuss... I still cant figure out how anybody could consider selling a stock that hasnt gone down in weeks! I mean for cryin out loud.. at least put like a 75 cent stop loss on it or sumtin. You'll be buying back at 9.50 in the am.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well one reason is that the stock can plunge right past your stop loss like it did today. A second reason is the stock may be so over priced that it's already valued like it's a success, when it's burning through cash at a rapid rate. I love Sirius, can't wait for Howard, in fact bought a unit for my wife's xmas gift. But I'm seriously thinking of shorting the stock. Here's some more info from the WSJ today...

Sirius Satellite
May Be Headed
For Dog Days
Overspending on Stern, NFL
Plus Too-Optimistic Assumptions
Look Like Recipe for a Flameout
December 8, 2004; Page C1

Sirius Satellite Radio is named after the brightest star in the Earth's sky, which is fitting. Stars burn brightest right before they flame out.

The once-desperate No. 2 behind XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. has seen its stock rise 340% to $9.01 since mid-August, mainly after the October signing of a five-year, $500 million contract to carry the musings of Howard Stern. Mr. Stern paved the way for Mel Karmazin, the erstwhile satellite-radio skeptic, to come aboard as the chief executive.

Rabid cult-shareholders have taken this to mean that satellite radio is finally legitimate. They are right, in the sense that satellite radio will survive in some fashion. For this, they must thank the terrestrial radio companies, who have defiled their golden goose with robotic programming and assaultive ads every third minute.

But the real lesson from Sirius Satellite Radio Inc.'s binge is that content remains the real king of media. By overpaying for Mr. Stern and for its earlier agreement to carry National Football League games, Sirius has started to crush its own windpipe. Sirius's chief financial officer, David Frear, says the company will break even on the first one million subscribers Mr. Stern generates. They put his fan base at 12 million, though trade magazine Talkers puts it at roughly 8.5 million weekly listeners.

That seems overly optimistic. The problem is that Mr. Stern owes his appeal to the very Federal Communications Commission restrictions he complains about. How many people will want to tune into a Howard Stern who can get away with anything? More important, how long will they stay subscribers?

Worse, Sirius has set a malign precedent, driving up prices not only for XM, its major competitor, but also for any distributor looking to bid on hot content.

Numbers never matter for these echo-bubble sectors, of course, as long as the companies experience hypergrowth. But the valuations of the two stocks -- especially Sirius -- make about as much sense as nudity on the radio. The market value today assumes that Sirius will reach 45 million subscribers. Today it has around 800,000.

Here's how to get to those numbers. Sirius's former chief executive and current chairman, Joe Clayton, hasn't just overpaid for content. He has treated his shares like paper. Thus, the company has a market value of $15.7 billion, using Sirius's own fully diluted share count of 1.74 billion.

In the third quarter, the average monthly revenue per subscriber -- known as ARPU -- was $10.92, well below the $12.95 monthly charge. But for the purposes of this exercise, let us assume the ARPU hits $12. That means each subscriber will generate $144 annually.

In this business, investors look at "contribution margin," which measures the cash flow after the variable costs from that subscriber but before marketing and subscriber acquisition costs. Sirius expects a 70% contribution margin. As a comparison, EchoStar Communications Corp., the satellite-television company, has a margin in the low 40s. With a 70% margin, a subscriber is worth $100 a year to Sirius.

Sirius's churn rate, or the rate at which subscribers drop the service, was 1.5% a month in the third quarter, down from 1.6% the quarter before. Investors and analysts focus on churn, but they overlook that, by simple math, the churn will be overstated at the early stages of rapid growth for any company or service. Subscribers tend to fall off only after a period of time.

Analysts debate where the churn rate will settle. The company thinks it should settle at around 1.7%. For reference, Bruce Leichtman, of the eponymous cable and satellite market-research firm, estimates that satellite television has a 19% annual churn, while cable has a 30% rate, of which more than half comes from people moving homes. Both Sirius and XM have deals with car makers, which raises the question: Will satellite radio suffer greater churn since people switch cars every three years or so? Or will it have lower churn as the companies make plug-and-play models?

Bulls will surely whine, but let's assume a higher rate of 2% monthly, or 24% annually. That means after four years, the equivalent of all the subscribers churn off. A subscriber, then, is worth $400. This is a tad oversimplified because money tomorrow is worth less than money today, but so be it.

Then there is the subscriber acquisition cost, or SAC. This year, Sirius forecasts that its SAC will be $200, down from $293 a year ago. Analysts think that someday SAC should be $50. Grant that to Sirius today and that means a subscriber is worth $350 to Sirius.

With a market cap of almost $16 billion, the market is valuing Sirius as if it reaches already 45 million subscribers all by its lonesome -- on generous unit economics. Today, the entire cable-TV industry has about 67 million subscribers and entire satellite-TV industry has 24 million, according to Leichtman Research.

Sirius is also called the Dog Star. Something to think about.

High Class
12-09-2004, 01:31 PM
I've read many things about SIRI and I've made some money, just like all of you probably.

I just wanted to know if anyone has hear a rumor that I heard yesterday.

I heard that SIRI and Ipod are going to be announcing that they are going to be doing something together.
If anyone has heard anything about this I'll like to know


12-09-2004, 01:40 PM

12-09-2004, 03:31 PM
I've been watching this stock, and unfortunately didn't have the cash at the time to buy the stock with it was around 4.

What price now do you think would be good to jump in at? It's currently at 7.18, and I'm thinking about buying some now.


12-09-2004, 03:56 PM

What price now do you think would be good to jump in at?

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How about below $2? Currently SIRI is valued at nearly $10,000 per listener. They cannot net much more than $100 or so per year per listener. Why would you pay $10k for the right to recieve $100 per year?

SIRI is becoming another internet type stock. It's value is based on some rosy future where they beat all the competition, sign up every possible listener, and don't have to raise more money or dilute investors. In that rosy scenario ten years from now SIRI might be worth more than $7. Probably not a lot more though.

When mature, they will probably sell for $1000 per listener or so. If buying today you are implicitly betting that they'll increase listenership by more than 10x fairly quickly. So you should be comfortable with that scenario before jumping in, and realize if they hit any bumps in the road it will be "lookout below!" for the stock price.

12-09-2004, 04:20 PM

12-11-2004, 01:18 PM
I sold calls against the 600 shares I still own in my regular account. I sold Mar 7 1/2 calls @ 1.25. This does a couple of things for me:
I collect $675 net of commissions that now puts me on a total freeroll with the shares.
If the stock rises I will still make a nice profit relinquishing the shares for 750+125=8.75 p/s...
If the stock trades sideways within a range as Im expecting Ill keep the shares and the $675

If it drops Im am price protected down to $6 from when I sold the calls.
If it drops down lower Id Id have been better off just selling the stock

Also assuming the stock is not called awa from me this helps me hole the stock so Ill be able to have a long term gain as opposed to s/t