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View Full Version : AAA heads up: Should I try to get as much in on the flop as I can?


JTG51
08-02-2004, 03:30 AM
.50/1 PLO. I start the hand with $170, my opponent has $350+. I haven't been at the table all that long, but I suspect he's a good player.

My PLO game has no finesse. My strategy is usually to just bet or raise the pot when I think I have the best hand. I wonder if maybe this hand was a good time to do something else?

UTG limps, I'm next and limp with A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Villian limps in MP. Two other players limps and the blinds come along. Seven to the flop.

Flop: A /images/graemlins/club.gif6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Checked to me, I bet the pot ($6.65 because of the rake). Folded to the villian who raises the pot, making it $26.60 to go. Folded back to me. Another pot sized raise would make him have to call $60 and would leave me with $60.

Like I said, I think he's a solid player, but I don't know him well enough to know if he could have a big draw on the flop or if he could fold a set to another pot sized raise. What's my best default play?

nicky g
08-02-2004, 07:27 AM
He could have you on a range of hands here given you;re lack of PF raise and consequently could have a wide range himself - two pair, a set (though the six in your hand makes sixes farily unlikely), a big draw or a bluff. I think either play is probably OK here - a reraise is much safer, and he may play with a poor hand given his large stack, but if he's a thinking player he'll probably put you on a set of sixes or aces and might fold. I'd be tempted to just call and checkraise the flop unless a diamond came down (I might occasionally bet out here), to make sure I win more money if he has a made hand or is bluffing. I think it;s unlikely he has some kind of big low straight draw.

Smasharoo
08-02-2004, 07:34 AM
I think you'd have to put him on AdXd and maybe two pair. Possibly Ad3d.

I think I'd call it down if there was no third diamon, or a pair to fill you up obviously.

turnipmonster
08-02-2004, 01:15 PM
it's pretty hard to construct a hand where he would have a big draw on the flop with. Ad 3d 4x 5x? aside from diamonds it's not a superdraw flop, and I think it less likely he would raise the pot here with only a draw. I think it looks like a made hand, and you beat all those, so I think you can give him some rope here, no?

the only thing is if he does have a big draw he also has at least top pair, so he might be willing to push a flush draw a little harder. I suck at PLO hand reading, don't listen to me /images/graemlins/smile.gif. I think if he has a made hand you are so far ahead you can slowplay. thoughts on my thoughts?

--turnipmonster

Smasharoo
08-02-2004, 02:05 PM
Wrong thread, NT

Mikey
08-02-2004, 02:11 PM
I'm just learning this game so I may err.... in my adviace

I think that at this juncture in the hand after you bet the pot and your opponent raised the pot, If it were me I would reraise the pot and be happy to take down the money right in there and reraise him back, because usually players get tied into the hand once this type of action occurs and they usually won't let it go.

Also the fact that you didn't raise preflop could cross his mind and he probably won't put you on top set. I'm pushing it all in here.

If he wants to draw... he's going to pay.
If he thinks he has the best hand he's going to pay to find out.

There may also be another arbitrary amount you can raise here that someone else may give but I think raising the pot up will suffice.

How'd you play it?

I reraise pot.

turnipmonster
08-02-2004, 02:35 PM
note that if he is against a made hand, the money is going in almost no matter what with two streets remaining. I think what JTG is saying is while most players would raise the pot, it allows the thinking player to get away from a hand like two pair.

--turnipmonster

Zag
08-02-2004, 03:43 PM
I predict that he has two pair and the nut flush draw. Note that, if he has two pair, that kills a lot of your redraws if he does hit the flush. If you throw in a gutshot, then you are only a little bit ahead:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=428948
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Ac 6d 2d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 6s 9c Ah 453 55.24 367 44.76 0 0.00 0.552
6c 5c Ad 4d 367 44.76 453 55.24 0 0.00 0.448

I am surprised at how much that gutshot helped him. Here are the results without it
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=428950
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Ac 6d 2d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 6s 9c Ah 521 63.54 299 36.46 0 0.00 0.635
6c 5c Ad Jd 299 36.46 521 63.54 0 0.00 0.365

I think that I would just call him, here, and take a look at the turn. If it is safe, then you are putting your money in with a MUCH bigger edge. Also, if he really does have two pair, I think you get more out of him by waiting for the turn. Here is the gutshot hand, but after a safe turn card:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=428956
Omaha Hi: 40 enumerated boards containing Js Ac 6d 2d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 6s 9c Ah 29 72.50 11 27.50 0 0.00 0.725
6c 5c Ad 4d 11 27.50 29 72.50 0 0.00 0.275

playerfl
08-02-2004, 04:01 PM
he could have a 4 straight/4 flush/lower set or any combination of those and still 2 cards to come.

I think you just call and see the turn.

JTG51
08-02-2004, 04:32 PM
it's pretty hard to construct a hand where he would have a big draw on the flop with. Ad 3d 4x 5x?

That hand may not be all that likely but it's certainly possible, and it would make him a favorite. Something like 5d 5x 4d 3x is about a coin flip with my hand. So I think big draws should at least be conidered.

I think if he has a made hand you are so far ahead you can slowplay. thoughts on my thoughts?

Yeah, I think if he has a made hand like a smaller set I need to do whatever I can do make sure I double up, which might mean check raising the turn. The problem with that plan is there are tons of scare cards that could come on the turn and keep him from giving me a lot of action.

Acesover8s
08-02-2004, 04:43 PM
I reraise here, and my reason is this. The fact that he has raised you on the flop means that he certainly does not put you on AAA. Not many people will push a favored draw against the nuts with plenty of money to bet and two cards to come. THis player may be the exception however.

He is more likely to put you on two pair or a flush draw, with a set himself, most likely sixes. A lot of cards kill your action if he is on a 1 out draw. I reraise here and put it all in on the turn no matter what comes.

If you are wrong and he has a draw you have still not misplayed the hand, although if you could be certain of the hand a better way to play it is to wait for the safe turn card.

Either way, I'm committing my chips now.

JTG51
08-02-2004, 04:45 PM
If it were me I would reraise the pot and be happy to take down the money right in there and reraise him back, because usually players get tied into the hand once this type of action occurs and they usually won't let it go.

But if he's got 'only' a set or two pair with no redraw, taking down the money right now is a disaster for me. And I'm confident that this player was good enough to fold 22 or two pair to another pot sized raise. Afterall, my hand should be crystal clear at that point.

JTG51
08-02-2004, 04:46 PM
think that I would just call him, here, and take a look at the turn. If it is safe, then you are putting your money in with a MUCH bigger edge.

That's what I thought about at the time, but in the end I decided I wasn't confident that I'd play the turn well with both of us having a lot of money left if a scary card came off.

JTG51
08-02-2004, 04:52 PM
I reraise here and put it all in on the turn no matter what comes.

That's exactly what I did, or at least planned to. I reraised the maximum and he thought forever, almost using up his entire time bank. He finally folded saying he had a set of deuces and a small flush draw. If that's true, he must have played a pretty junky hand, but I have no reason not to believe him. Especially given how long he thought about the decision.

So now for the follow up question. For those of you that advocate a call, what's my plan on the turn if a wheel card or a diamond hits and he bets the pot again? His bet would be about $55, and I'd have about $140 left.

JTG51
08-02-2004, 04:57 PM
If you just call the flop, what would you do on the turn if a diamond hit?

turnipmonster
08-02-2004, 05:02 PM
I almost certainly checkraise allin if he underbets at all. in this situation he wouldn't have folded but any player that you are going to be slowplaying the flop against is capable of laying down a small flush on the turn. the big problem is if he checks behind on the turn.

--turnipmonster

nicky g
08-03-2004, 05:42 AM
I'm hoping that doesn't happen /images/graemlins/tongue.gif. Seriously, that screws the plan up big time. But on the other hand it happens less than 1 in 4 times. I might well bet out as even if he does have the flush (and I put him more on a made hand than a draw here) he may not have a very good one, and you can represent that reasonably convincingly, having bet out and called a raise on the flop. Sometimes I check and probably fold depending on the bet size. But most of the time a flush card doesn;t come and he bets out again, which puts you in a situation to win a lot of money.

pete fabrizio
08-03-2004, 11:09 AM
Yeah, my advice is don't listen to those fools who are telling you not to reraise here. You drove out an opponent who had 10 outs, don't lose any sleep over it.

Here's a rule of thumb for this kind of situation that's so good I shouldn't tell it to you: When in position, consider slowplaying. When out of position, don't.

JTG51
08-03-2004, 05:01 PM
When in position, consider slowplaying. When out of position, don't.

Yeah, that rule isn't exclusive to PLO, and it's one I usually stick to. I just thought that the combined chance that this guy might have just one out, might fold if I reraise, and might double me up if I slowplay was good enough that this might be a good time for it. Guess not.

crockpot
08-04-2004, 05:35 AM
i would usually reraise. the main reason is that he has position on you. if this weren't true, you could see his reaction to the turn card and get the money in there no matter what if you're ahead. with him behind you, however, it may be difficult to play the turn to maximize your profit, especially if a card that could have completed a draw hits, but he doesn't actually have that draw.

note that when you have position, the turn is much easier to play. if a diamond hits, he will most likely check if he doesn't have a flush (since he puts you on a flush draw when you call the flop raise). this way you can assure the turn gets bet.

if your opponent is really a good player, a low set is unlikely; he would rarely play 66xx unless it was part of two pair or a hand like 8766. and 543x is also unlikely. i would suspect he has something like A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 x /images/graemlins/diamond.gif x.

one seemingly minor detail is somewhat important: because the ace on the flop isn't of the flush suit, he could easily be raising on two pair and a nut flush draw, or top pair and the nut flush draw. this factor makes a diamond more likely fatal for you.

3rdEye
08-04-2004, 09:14 AM
I'd probably raise the size of the pot. At worst you're a coinflip, and at best you're way ahead (I guess if he has a straight flush draw you might be a slight dog, but I'm no good with Omaha odds). I don't think it's bad to pot commit yourself here. After all, at this point, you do have the nuts. In addition, he very well could have something like AK or two pair, and given your failure to raise preflop, he might suspsect that such a hand is good. Of course, there are a ton of scare cards that could hit, and I can't say how I would proceed in the event that one of them were to fall. If a diamond or a straight card comes on the turn, what's your play? If you check, he's sure to bet. If you bet out on the turn, and he raises, your judgment has to come into play. A tricky player will bet/raise if a scare card hits, regardless of what he has. Without a solid read, it's going to be tough for you to proceed in that event.

That being said, I don't think you can just call here. You're getting "Sklansky bucks" with every dollar you put into the pot on the flop. If your bankroll allows it, get as many of your chips in on the flop as you can.

Just my opinion.

Walter
08-17-2004, 06:07 PM
If he is good enough to fold to your reraise, is he bad enough to keep pumping the pot with bottom set come the turn or river?

Ray Zee
08-23-2004, 02:42 PM
you want to raise because now if he calls you dont make a mistake by folding on 4th to a bluff. and you have the best hand and if he goes out so what. there are too many cards in omaha to get you that you dont want him drawing with many of the possible hands that he may lay down. which is what he did.
the reason not to raise would be if you had alot of money and he called and you were going to be put to the test on the next card by a bluff capable player.

JTG51
08-23-2004, 06:03 PM
you want to raise because now if he calls you dont make a mistake by folding on 4th to a bluff.

Good point. I didn't think of that. It feels kind of wimpy to try to get all of the money in early so you don't get outplayed later, but I guess in a game like PLO with so many scare cards that makes perfect sense.

Kellermann
08-25-2004, 04:40 PM
[ QUOTE ]
My PLO game has no finesse. My strategy is usually to just bet or raise the pot when I think I have the best hand. I wonder if maybe this hand was a good time to do something else?

UTG limps, I'm next and limp with A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Villian limps in MP. Two other players limps and the blinds come along. Seven to the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a fact that you all are missing here. JTG51 you fail to follow your own strategy. Do you see why? You say that you bet or raise when you have the best hand. Your start hand consists of aces with one suited and you limp in preflop. Ok, this might be the second best hand but I'd say that this is the best hand here.

Now what might have happened if you had raised? The game sounds like a max 100xbig blind buyin so your opponents should be willing to call a 3$ bet. This is just imagination. Let us say that six people see the flop for 3$ each which makes the pot 18$. I would bet pot here. If you get raised on the flop you can easily reraise all in. (Or close to.)