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barryg1
stranger

Reged: 03/23/03
Posts: 0
Re: I Might've Made a Big Mistake Here...
08/16/05 06:45 AM

It was funny at the time was watching the professor doing the mental mathematics. He sat there for a couple of minutes and computed that there were 41 unknown cards which means I have (41 choose 3)= 10660 possible three-card holdings and I had to have 3 out of 5 possible low flush cards. (He didn't have of them.) (5 choose 3) = 10. If my hole cards were random, I guess that would mean it was over 1000 to 1 against him getting scooped or three-quartered. The point of the story was how foolish and irrelevant his calculation was.

I am often accosted with this kind of logic when players tell me their bad beat stories. People either use random cards, or "those in the know" choose from possible initial or final holdings. But "those in the know" are wrong also. They will say, "From the early betting a player had Ace, Kings, or Queens," and then they do a calculation that shows they got proper pot-odds on a call. Meanwhile, I know how the player in question bets with the nuts, so I knew he had the best hand, even if I couldn't figure out what it was. Calculations are usually irreleavant once someone looks at their cards and gives information with their bets and the way they act. Even on the initial two or three cards, I can discern differences in the hands of opponents I am very familiar with, that I qualitatively tranlate into probabilities. In otherwords, the probabilities for different possible startings hands are not all equal to a real poker player.

In the hand in question, I may also have felt pot stuck and called if I had the professor's hand. But back in 1975, that was an enormous amount of money for that game. At that time, that was the largest win to date for either of us. It certainly wasn't close 1000 to 1 against me having the low flush, and when I raised what seemed like all the money in the world at the time, players at the table with any poker sense knew what I probably caught on the river.

Barry

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