The 2+2 Forums Older Archives: Probability in Multi-way Pots?

I did a search, but couldn't find previous posts on determination of probability if you are in a multi-way pot (I either got a huge list or nothing depending on how I tried to search). Anyone have a link to an old discussion or a book recommendation?

I’m curious as there are so many players that are new to the game and understanding odds that there seem to be very few heads-up pots at the micro limits where I play. I understand odds in heads-up situations, but what happens in multi-way action? Do I subtract the odds for the players with fewer outs from the player with the more outs? I have been trying to reduce this by choosing tables with a low number of players seeing the flop, but at micro-limits the turnover is pretty high so it is difficult to find tables with a low percentage seeing the flop.

Here’s an example, I hold AsKd and raise 3XBB pre-flop into a 10-player table. I have 3 callers (pretty typical in a lot of micro-limit games where players “just want to see a flop”). The flop is Ad 5h 8h. I have top pair, top kicker. However, there are other hands out there, with the heart flush draw being the hand with the most outs. So (I’m going to use very rough numbers) I have a 60% win rate vs. the flush. Say there is one player with Ax offsuit, they have a (roughly) 10% to hit two pair with one of the three remaining undercards. Say there is a player with a 67(suited or unsuited, I’ve seen both call), they have a (roughly) 20% chance to hit their open-ended straight. Say the last player has a small pocket pair that they didn’t hit their set, they have (roughly) 8% to hit their set. Do I just take my 60% probability vs. the flush and subtract 10% from the Ax draw, 20% from the straight draw and 8% for the set draw, leaving me with odds to win of 22%?

If this is the case, too many fish can actually be a huge hit to your probability of winning at these low limits. Is too many fish a bad thing?

Obviously, I should have paid more attention in my Probability Class…thanks for the help.

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