K problem on the bubble

[PrayingMantis]

We're last 5 in a 2-tables 22$ SNG. Stacks (approx.): 8500, 6300, 6100, 4900, 1100. Four see the money.

I'm 4th w/4900.


Blinds 200/400, ante 25.

Big-stack and small-stack fold. Button (6100) limps (not too common but happened before. he's pretty loose-aggressive), SB (6300, very loose-passive) calls.

I check on the BB with 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

SB checks. I decide to check, I'm not sure it was a good decision, but I almost knew Button will bet, if checked to him, then SB will fold, and I'll raise, or push on the turn, if A doesn't hit.

Well, Button does bet, T800. Problem is, SB calls. It's not completely surprising, he can do this with many hands, but it still makes me worried.

So, does any of them has a better K? Actually, almost any K will do. Should I risk busting here, with almost a sure place in the money (small-stack is about to vanish)? what's your move?

PrayingMantis

[ThaSaltCracka]

a reraise is definitely in order. My guess is button either has an A, or is making a play at the pot representing a K, I think SB has an A. The chance someone else has a K is fairly low here. This seems like a good oppurtunity for a check raise, hopefully you can take it down with that.

[jaydoggie]

no matter what i choose would be wrong, since ive busted on the bubble over and over today [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

but i'd atleast double it. thats cheap enough to tell them where they are at, and to let them let you know where its at. the double is the most scary raise in this situation. if you just get called, id check/call.

[NotMitch]

You need to raise here or else fold to the check preflop. Folding increases you chance to finish 4th and decreases you chance of winning where the real money is.

Edit: (sorry if this sounds a little blunt, Im just finishing up a long day at work and will be missing the 2+2 sng, but I still think you need to play this hand.)

[TylerD]

The thing about 2 table SnGs is that they aren't too top heavy in that 3rd is 20% and 1st is only 40% so playing to move up one place is definately the way to go. That being said I would definately raise here, if he has an Ace - great, if he has a king better kicker well you still have outs to split the pot and if he has AK c'est la vie.

[PrayingMantis]

Thanks for the replies.

As you all pretty much said, I figured this is not a hand I should and want to get away from, although I wasn't too happy with my kicker and the fact that two other opponents put money in the pot. If it was only button, I wouldn't even post it. But as it were 2 of them, the probability of another K was much higher (SB could easily be playing K8, for example).

So, I pushed, while knowing I'll get probably called only by a better hand. I just didn't want any of them to stay and catch another A for a better FH, and I figured any smaller raise will not necessarily make an A fold here, especially not a loose caller.

They both folded. I took it down.


PrayingMantis

[gunboat]

I would not put SB on a K. If he had it, he would certainly raise here. The pot is big enough and he doesn't want to see anothr A either. A small to medium PP is much more likely. Button could have an A or almost anything else. If someone does have a K, the most likely result is chop.

Go ahead and push on the flop. The pot is big enough and would be a great result for that BB hand.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
I would not put SB on a K .

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not that I specifically put him on a K, but as he called the bet on the flop, I though that K is not unreasonable, with his overall very passive play.

Moreover, I think this guy could limp from SB with any K, raising (maybe) only with AK, sometimes KQ. It's not that I tend to suspect monsters under the bed or something, I only think it's a question of how much risk you are willing to take on the bubble, and with one very short stack at the table.

[ QUOTE ]
If someone does have a K, the most likely result is chop.


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. If SB limped with K2 - KQ, these are the chances of a chop:

K2-K6 about 1:1, getting closer to 55:45 as his kicker is getting bigger.

K7-K8 - he's getting to about 3:2 over me.

K9-KT - He's around 2:1 against me.

KJ - He's 3:1.

KQ - He's 4:1.

So, generally speaking, if this passive player *does* have a K, (with equal spread of kickers) I'm a dog, if not a big dog. I don't think considering this as a "chop" situation in the worst case, is the right way to look at it.

But regarding the move itself, I agree. I pushed and didn't regret it.


PrayingMantis

[PrayingMantis]

I just wanted to add that the EV calculations didn't put enough stress on "chop" possibilities, and that's why I disagreed with the "chop probability" and tended to underestimate the chances of a chop. So, It *is* true that with opponent's K2-K9, in the majority of time (i.e., >50%) we tie, but if we don't he has a better and better chance to take it down. With K9, for example, it's a tie 53% of the time, but for KQ we tie only 20% of the time, and he wins the big majority of the rest.

I think that there's one interesting point here. CEV of 1:1, can have very different meaning, if it's a "chop" 1:1 EV, or win/lose 1:1 EV.

In this situation, as in many other tournament situations, I will take, of course, the 1:1 chop EV, but will fold, if it is 1:1 win/lose EV.

The reasons are pretty clear, I think.

PrayingMantis