Opinions?

[Jason Strasser]

This is a long post that kind of wanders around, bear with me.

I've just loaded poker tracker onto my computer at home, and have begin to notice interesting trends in my play... Here are the numbers:

26 buy ins at $30 NL
6 firsts, ZERO seconds, eight thirds
Net profit of +$522

7 buy ins at $50 NL
0 firsts, 0 seconds, 2 thirds.
Net profit -$185.

I feel very comfortable at the thirty SNGs. They are stocked full of fish, and it has been the easiest game for me to beat on party. My average place is 3.88, and although I have been running a bit hotter than usual, but I have always been a winning player at the 30s.

However, I have one problem, which is why I have zero second place finishes and so many thirds. I am a good heads up player, I am more patient than most players, and through good fortune, I usually am able to catch my average opponent on bad cards. I probably win 70-80% of my heads up matches.

However, my strategy in Sit'n'goes is to be very tight in the beggining, and when there are 4-5 left, I become EXTREMELY aggressive. Sure, when I lose I am usually 4th or 5th, but I play with no fear. Any decent ace, I steal blinds. And two high cards, I push. Any pocket pair, I push. This works to my advantage, for 3 reasons:

1) I have a tight image.
2) No one likes finishing 4th or 5th.
3) Blinds are so damn high, I often move from last or second to last, to near the chip lead without a showdown.

When I get called, I usually lose, because they are either AA-99, AK-AJ. Most of the maniacs are usually gone on average when there are 4-5 left, and most solid players will not put their tournament on the line with hands that are probably ahead of mine slightly.

However, this all changes when there are 3 left... People are in the money, and make loose calls. I do not adjust well to this. Usually I push all in, to steal the blinds, and get called more often than not. I'm not sure if its profitable though... I do finish first a lot, because of this, but I also finish third a lot.

The data I have provided is over a short period of time, but I believe it is accurate, generally.

What do you all think? Let up when I'm at third? Or keep pushing it?

Secondly, when do I move up to $50? I haven't had much success on that level, any adjustments I need to make?

[M.B.E.]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
However, my strategy in Sit'n'goes is to be very tight in the beggining, and when there are 4-5 left, I become EXTREMELY aggressive. Sure, when I lose I am usually 4th or 5th, but I play with no fear. Any decent ace, I steal blinds. And two high cards, I push. Any pocket pair, I push.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sounds right.

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
However, this all changes when there are 3 left... People are in the money, and make loose calls. I do not adjust well to this. Usually I push all in, to steal the blinds, and get called more often than not. I'm not sure if its profitable though...

[/ QUOTE ]
As you know, the "all-in or fold" strategy is usually okay at this point in the tourney, when your stack is 12 times the big blind or less. The thing to remember is, be much tighter about it when your stack is big. So if your stack is three times the big blind, push in on the button with K8, A3, 98, 44 etc. But you'd fold all those hands on the button if your stack is 12 times the big blind. (Given your observation that at this stage your opponents call you "more often than not".) Also of course if you happen to be the chip leader, you don't go by how large your own stack is but the size of the next-largest stack.

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
Secondly, when do I move up to $50? I haven't had much success on that level, any adjustments I need to make?

[/ QUOTE ]
Keep trying. Seven tourneys is not a big enough sample.

[Bozeman]

You don't have enough tourneys to draw conclusions about your play, but if you could take every hypothetical 2nd and turn it into 1/2 of first and 1/4 third, it would be neutral EV. If possible, one should strive more for 1st and 3rd than 2nd.

At the 50 level, there are a few factors: a) 7 buyins is not statistically meaningful b) your opponents are on average playing (more correctly) tighter so more are left at the big blinds point c) many opps will recognize your strategy, and adjust to it.

Things I would adjust: a) play slightly looser at the start b) temper your aggression in the middle a little bit (try to keep your tight image, even though you arent tight here) c) play stacks, position, and opponents as much as cards in the middle game.

Play your opponents in the end game.

Your brief lack of success will turn around,
Craig