Getting Away from Over Pair

Prickly Pete · #1 02-04-2004, 01:08 PM

Party $100 NLHE SNG. I've got 900 at 15-30 and pick up red Qs in MP. Folded to me, I raise to 90. Button & BB call. 285 in Pot. (Button & BB both have 1000 or a little over.)

Flop is 9c 7h 4s. Checked to me, I bet 250, button folds, BB calls. 785 in pot.

Turn is 3d. Checked to me. What should I do and why?

kerssens · #2 02-04-2004, 01:19 PM

I think you're still in the lead, its not unreasonable that you're up against a 10-8 or 8-6, probably suited... the set would likely raise over the top although the reason for writing this must be that they had it..........I'd push

CrisBrown · #3 02-04-2004, 01:22 PM

Hi Prickly Pete,

I think I would just check behind. There are no flush possibilities, and I wouldn't put him on T8 (the only reasonable straight possibility). Which means he's likely not chasing. I don't think your hand is strong enough to bet for value, as he's only likely to call it if he has a hand to beat it (a set or AA/KK). So checking it down is probably the better choice here, as I see it.

Your mileage may vary.

Cris

kerssens · #4 02-04-2004, 01:40 PM

Out of curiosity, what's there to make you dismiss the T8? And if you check the turn and they bet the pot on the river (assuming another rag hits) what do you do?

CrisBrown · #5 02-04-2004, 01:58 PM

Hi kerssens,

With only 7:2 on his call at the button, and in a $100 SNG, I don't think it's likely that he'd have called on a one-gap connector (suited or off). I wouldn't have, and most of the opponents with whom I play wouldn't have. Obviously I could be wrong and THIS opponent might have, but to me it seems more likely that he has a made hand rather than a draw.

Given that, and the pot size, and my stack size here, the only reasonable bet (if I'm going to bet) is to move in, a bet that he probably won't call UNLESS he has me beaten. So I gain nothing by pushing in -- I'm not worried about giving him a free card -- and I stand to lose a lot if he has hit a set or has an overpair.

Given all of that, I'd rather check it down than push all of my chips in against what smells a whole lot like a trap.

Cris

ohkanada · #6 02-04-2004, 01:59 PM

I would likely bet all-in on the turn.

Without any specific info about the BB, the BB could have a wide variety of hands. Sure some he would win with but the majority of which you are ahead. Hands like A9, TT, T8, JJ and a few others he will likely call your allin bet.

FYI, I havn't played any SNG on Party.

Ken Poklitar

Prickly Pete · #7 02-04-2004, 02:05 PM

Thanks for the responses thus far. One more question, if you check behind on the turn, do you call or fold an allin bet on the river?

I'll post the results in a bit.

kerssens · #8 02-04-2004, 02:06 PM

Makes sense, just like the discussion....so do you fold if he bets after the river?

kerssens · #9 02-04-2004, 02:20 PM

I'm not saying I'd play the T8 but its not an automatic fold....its not all about pot odds, its important to know but its a relatively inexpensive flop to see and the type of hand that can break a mechanical player.

The Prince · #10 02-04-2004, 02:32 PM

On Party,

I really can't see how you can not move all-in on the turn. You'll have the best hand at least 85% of the time. In no way does the action suggest you are beaten. He easily could have a 9 or a 7 for that matter.

Having played many, many SNGs on Party at the 100 and 200 buy ins, players are so weak that if you never folded top pair decent kicker you would be way ahead.