What's your play here?

[DOTTT]

$50+$5 SNG at Stars. 7 players left and blinds at 25/50. I'm in the bb and get 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and getting ready to throw it away once the pot is raised. However, no one raises 3 limpers and the sb completes. Stack sizes and relevant reads on the players are:
Me-2300 and in second place. (Like to think of myself as a solid player [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img])
utg- 1450 only played 3 hands and won one without a showdown.
utg+2-1800 aggressive player who tends to over bet the pot when he's caught top pair. He also plays a lot of connectors.
utg+3- 1100 very solid player who just took a bad beat for half his chips when his AA got cracked by a AQ flush on the river.
sb- 1600

Ok so I'm happy to get to see the flop for free, and thinking this is going to be the easiest hand to get away from if I miss my set. Well flop comes:
2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

sb checks, this is last place I want to give a free card so I fire 600 into the pot. What do you think of the bet too big/little?

utg calls utg+2 moves all in and utg+3 calls!

sb folds and it's back to me 4350 in the pot, what's your play? Results later.

[ohkanada]

Call. You may well up against Ad and a made flush but based on the pot size you have the odds of catching your boat. Hopefully you are up against Ad in one hand and Kd in the other!

Ken Poklitar

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I fold. One of your opponents might have A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Jx, another might have the flush already, and the third could have TT or JT. The bottom line is, with 3 others sticking it all in the pot, the odds that at least one is already ahead of you are pretty good, and with this many callers, your outs are likely in someone else's hands. There's a good chance two people get knocked out or crippled here. It's hard to fold a set, but I think you have to here.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Ken, there are three other hands in the pot. Wouldn't that significantly reduce the possibility that his outs are live?

[NotMitch]

Note I have never played at the $50 level and I might be way out of line here.

I think I fold becuase the three(assuming UTG calls which seems pretty likely right?) hands I could be up against have me in really bad shape. Would someone with pocket jacks or 10s raise preflop in this situation? I tend to think so, but someone with J10 might limp so my guess is someone holds that. Some has a must a have flush draw or even a made flush, so if you are against a flush draw and J10 you are in decent shape but if its a made flush and J10 drawing to one out. I think there are better spots. But if it was me playing I would probably get caught up in the moment and call.

[Che]

What a hand! FWIW, I see 3 possible scenarios:

1. You are ahead and win 4350 about 2/3 of the time. This happens when opponents have TPTK and some combo of overcards/open-ended straight draw/flush draw.
2. You are behind and win 4350 about 30% of the time. This happens when at least one opponent has a made flush and your boat outs are good.
3. You are behind and win 4350 about 4% of the time. This happens when you’re against TT or a made flush and JT.

If the three scenarios were equally likely, it would be an easy call.

Given your reads, however, scenario 2 appears to be the most likely and it is +EV. Scenario 1 is obviously extremely +EV. So, I probably call unless I’m very confident that this is Scenario 3.

Other thoughts:

Extra motivation for calling is that I still have a fighting chance if I lose the main pot as long as I beat utg+2, who appears to be the most likely player to have a marginal hand.

If you were a short stack, I would definitely call since this seems like a good time to gamble.

If you were a huge stack, I would definitely call since you could afford it.

Since you’re a big-but-not-huge stack, the possibility of scenario 3 would haunt me but I would probably call in the end (and cry when Kurn ends up being right and my opponents show A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and TT).

Edit: Just found another oops...there's a good chance that more chips are going in the pot since UTG will call a decent % of the time. Thus you often win more than T4350. Since I already advocated calling, I guess it really doesn't matter, actually. Sorry about the sloppy post. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[Che]

If one of your opponents shows A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], file a complaint. Sorry! I guess your fourth two is probably still out there...

[ohkanada]

I somewhat forgot about the UTG guy who just called. I think it is pretty close either way. Of course if the 3rd guy has a bigger set or top 2 then that hurts a lot.

Either way if he misses the boat he may win a sidepot depending on who wins the main pot.

Ken Poklitar

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I call your attention to this:

utg calls utg+2 moves all in and utg+3 calls!

He has 3 opponents in the pot, not 2, and I'm certain that if he calls, UTG is coming along as well.

[Che]