Are the sets worth it?

[PrayingMantis]

Hi all.

3 situations, that happened recently, made me think.

1. I lost with 33 to 99, on a 2-3-9 flop. (and went out of SNG.)

2. I lost with 44 to 77, on a 4-7-7-x-x board. (Went out)

3. Won a very small pot with TT on a 3-7-T-Q-8 board.

The first two are examples of spots, where I was pretty sure I'm way ahead, and then I realized I'm way behind. The third is an example of a flopped set, that brought home almost nothing.

There's a concept, regarding SNG's, that advocates limping with PP's on early rounds, when the blinds are low and the stacks deep. Why do you do it? to try and spike a set, or get out cheaply. Most of the time (a little less than 90%) you get nothing, and lose 1BB. But here, well, as you see, I made it with 33, and with 44 (low FH), and lost with both much more than I wanted to, while with the tripe T I got nothing.

Conclusion: it might be that the danger in flopping a 2nd or 3rd set, or even a low FH, and the no-value (sometimes) of floping a nut-set with TT, makes limping with pairs, surely below 88-77, not very profitable, and even -EV? what do you think?

I know this is a very small sample, but my thoughts are more theoretical...(I hope).

BTW, I know I didn't put full hand histories here, but let's assume I played all three hands perfectly after the flop. In other words: assume somebody else played them... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]



PrayingMantis

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Set over set is rare. You just hit one of those weird disruptions of the space-time continuum. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

There's a saying from limit HE: If you flop a set and lose, and you *don't* lose a lot of money, you played it wrong.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

The set-over-set or quads-over-your-set thing is SO rare i NEVER worry about it. It's only happened to me a handful of times in years and years of regular play.

the sets ARE worth it if there are two criteria that are met:

1) you can get away cheep if you miss (this includes the blinds being small when you limp)

2) you have a good chance to bust someone when you hit, i.e. the implied odds are there. So if you limp for 20, but collect 600, it was worth it. Rarely will you make NOTHING or VERY LITTLE on your set. I find that I often wind up busting someone when I play a hand where I flopped a set.

Also, you can generally assume someone WILL play virtually EVERY hand like a moron.

al

[Lou Krieger]

[ QUOTE ]
3 situations, that happened recently, made me think.

1. I lost with 33 to 99, on a 2-3-9 flop. (and went out of SNG.)

2. I lost with 44 to 77, on a 4-7-7-x-x board. (Went out)

3. Won a very small pot with TT on a 3-7-T-Q-8 board.

The first two are examples of spots, where I was pretty sure I'm way ahead, and then I realized I'm way behind. The third is an example of a flopped set, that brought home almost nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Every time you play a poker hand there is usually the possibility of a monster under the bed, but that shouldn't stop you from being aggressive when you believe you have the best of it.

Set over set is pretty rare, and the only way around losing some or all of your chips in these situations is to fold to any raise when you have flopped a set that is not the current nuts. If you do that, you'll seldom lose to set over set, but you'll find yourself blinded out of a tournament very quickly.

Playing a hand and losing with it is not the end of the world. And if you can't find enough positive EV in a set, you'll almost never find a hand worth taking a stand on.

Look at the bright side. Flopping a set should cause you to silently jump for joy, not bemoan the possibilities of a bigger set just waiting to pounce on you.
_______
Lou Krieger
Raise your game with Lou Krieger, author of "Interrnet Poker: How to Play and Beat Online Poker Games," at Royal Vegas Poker.
http://www.royalvegaspoker/lou

[Prickly Pete]

[ QUOTE ]
There's a saying from limit HE: If you flop a set and lose, and you *don't* lose a lot of money, you played it wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

As usual, I concur with Kurn. I think this saying certainly applies to NL SNGs as well.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
The set-over-set or quads-over-your-set thing is SO rare i NEVER worry about it. It's only happened to me a handful of times in years and years of regular play.


[/ QUOTE ]

Now I feel better, knowing that what happaned to you a handful of times during years and years, happened to me lately TWICE in ONE hour (set over set, quads over a boat)... [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
I guess on-line poker DOES educate you faster... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]


Thanks for the reply, I think that what made me wrote this post was a really unlucky streak, which I tried to handle rationally.

And it's possible I'm not making the best out of my flopped sets, when I get them. I might be playing them a bit too aggressive (which should work good with low buy-in's calling-stations, but not with others), or that I SP them too much. Anyway, that is something I have to work on.


PrayingMantis

[Al_Capone_Junior]

[ QUOTE ]
Now I feel better, knowing that what happaned to you a handful of times during years and years, happened to me lately TWICE in ONE hour (set over set, quads over a boat)...
I guess on-line poker DOES educate you faster...


[/ QUOTE ]

I was cracking up, I missed the point that it was twice in ONE HOUR!!! I'm still nearly in tears....

In the immortal words of the great Cartman:

"Ow! My ass!"

TRUST ME, these things are VERY rare! the rare times my opponent flops a bigger set than I do, well, he'll just win my money if he plays it right.

al

[Al_Capone_Junior]

[ QUOTE ]
Look at the bright side. Flopping a set should cause you to silently jump for joy, not bemoan the possibilities of a bigger set just waiting to pounce on you.


[/ QUOTE ]

A similar lament as was stated in my last post on this thread.

Curious Lou, you have certainly played more than I, what estimation do you have as the frequency of set over set? I say "extremely rare," tho I realize this is not a mathematical estimation. I don't really expect you to give a precise # either, but perhaps you have further comments on this. I think I have been on the losing end of set over set about ten times in nearly as many years of playing an average of 20-25 hours (or more) a week. Lately, playing pro, of course I play more than 20 hours a week, but I still virtually never see this happen.

al

[Al_Capone_Junior]

[TomCollins]

I have never made more money and gotten an early chip lead other than flopping a set. I can't think of something better to happen in a tournament early than flopping a set. They are bound to win or lose a huge pot.