A quick test of your mental agility

Just for those who like to test thir neurons out.

I played in a pokerstars 100+9 no-limit HE tourney last night. This was one of the important hands for me.


With 6 left, I'm 3rd smallest and get the smallest stack all-in preflop with QdQs vs TsTc. Flop comes Ad7d3d. What is each players chances here? A free chewy treat for whoever can promise me they worked it out the quickest.


(of course I lost on the turn and was crippled; that's what got me figuring it out)

you should win 95% of the time

He has one out--Th--you have 44.

Well..he basically has one out. And none of the turn OR river card can be a diamond, UNLESS one of the cards is the Td and the other pairs the board or is the spare Th left). Now you do the math.

Tom,


He has at least two outs -- the two remaining tens.

... 947 is good and 43 is bad !

Td makes a flush for the poster

I get a 96.57% chance of you winning this hand

Thanks angry,


Does this number account for the possible redraw for the T's, where the Td falls and the board also pairs by the river? This makes the Td worth about quarter of an out (if the Td falls there's then 10/44 to pair the board with the remaining board card). yes/no?


Also, of the times the Th falls, putting the tens in the lead, there's still 2/44 for a Q to fall, killing the T's. A Q on either card will always kill the T's.


These sorts of calculations are not my strong point and I was hoping someone would jot down thir process for getting a number for this.