Who is favored here?

[Redmen62]

This is from a PL Omaha Hi hand from a home game this evening.

I'm holding A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

My opponent is holding 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

The flop is: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Who is favored on the flop? We debated at the time about who was a favorite at the time, but there's no question I'd rather have my top set vs. his flush/straight/dominated full house draw. Hopefully some of the number-crunchers can weigh-in here...

[pudley4]

From www.twodimes.net

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=88725
pokenum -o ad as 7d 2c - 6h 7c 8h 9c -- ac 7s 8c
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 7s Ac 8c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 2c Ad 7d 435 53.05 385 46.95 0 0.00 0.530
9c 7c 8h 6h 385 46.95 435 53.05 0 0.00 0.470

[Bozeman]

Obviously top set is a favorite against a vanilla straight and flush draw. However, his seemingly useless two pair helps him here, since they are two of your redraw outs. So, as you can see, this places him almost even.

In the play, I think pushing his hand hard is correct, since the only hand that he is a big dog against is a set with a better flush draw. And since he can't be sure which of his outs aren't good, he needs to get it allin. With a flop of As 7c 8c and a hand of 6c 7h 8h 9c, he is much more likely to be in this unfavorable situation, even though he now has str8flush outs.

But I'm sure you didn't come here for my take on strategy,
Craig

[Redmen62]

Thanks for the numbers and comments, and I do appreciate the strategy talk. As you can imagine, there was a lot of action on this flop, with me holding the current nuts and my opponent's multitude of draws.

As stated before, however, even if I'm a dog in terms of win percentage, I'll take having the current nuts, and draws to what will almost certainly be the nuts. If I'm reading the numbers correctly, I think thats represented by my higher EV. Thanks again.

[Bozeman]

Yes. With any dead money in the pot, there is no way either of you should fold.