chance of making final table

[paulish]

If you know
a) the number of chips in play
b) your chip count
b) number of players left,
and asume even skill level among the players,
is there a way to calculate the chance of making it to the final table?

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
If you know
a) the number of chips in play
b) your chip count
b) number of players left,
and asume even skill level among the players,
is there a way to calculate the chance of making it to the final table?

[/ QUOTE ]
No. Stack sizes, playing styles, locations of the blinds and their scheduled increases, etc. matter.

There some reasonable tools you can use, such as the independent chip model (ICM). The ICM produces a distribution of places for each player from the chip stacks. One way to describe it is that the winner is chosen with probability proportionate to each player's chip stack, their chips are removed, and the remaining players play a tournament for second place. This is repeated to determine all of the places.

You can find many applications of the ICM and discussions of its merits in the 1TT and MTT forums.