#1
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A surprising result on the flop
Three all-ins on a board of AQT:
Hand 1: AQ Hand 2: AT Hand 3: QT For the flop to come up AQT, the probability is 2/46 * 2/45 * 2/44 = .000087834 How do I adjust the odds of the hands to figure out the total likelyhood of the board + the hands? Is it ((4/52 * 4/51 AQ) * (3/50 * 4/49 QT) * (3/48 * 3/47 AT)) + (2/46 * 2/45 * 2/44)? Thanks! |
#2
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Re: A surprising result on the flop
Actually:
You don't care about the order of the cards on the flop or in the player's hands. With 6 known cards, there are 46 choose 3 = 15180 possible flops, and you wanted to see one of 2*2*2=8 of those so the probability is 8/15180=.000527... Now, assuming we don't care about the order of the hands, there are: 52 chose 2 * 50 chose 2 * 48 chose 2 *46 chose 3/6 possible ways to get 3 hands and a flop. And, there are 4*4*4 ways to get an AQT flop 3*3 ways to get an AQ hand provided the flop is AQT 2*3 ways to get a QT hand provided the flops is AQT and there is a AQ hand, and 2*2 ways to get a AT hand provided everyhing abouve is true. So that's 13824 in 4635635004000 |
#3
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Re: A surprising result on the flop
[ QUOTE ]
13824 in 4635635004000 [/ QUOTE ] Or pretty friggin' unlikely [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Thanks for the info! |
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