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#1
09-28-2005, 10:54 AM
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KQs before the flop--help figuring probabilities
I am cross-posting this in the beginner's forum too b/c it may be too rudimentary for this forum.
I folded KdQd from the big blind three-handed recently, mostly trying to finish in the money when we were 2 small stacks against one giant stack, and the button and SB went all in. Payout structure for the tournament was 3rd place gets his buy-in back, 2nd and 1st pay 40:60 respectively from what remains (20 person tournament). From my read on the button and the small blind I thought I would be up against an Ace and a pocket pair. I knew I had the chance to triple up, but I also thought that I would have to pair one of my cards and avoid an Ace to have a chance. Can anyone help me figure out the probabilities of this? Also, how do I factor in my flush draw? If this question is not appropriate for this forum, let me know. Thanks. 
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#2
09-28-2005, 11:32 AM
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Re: KQs before the flop--help figuring probabilities
It's appropriate. Check out Poker Stove. Should do everything you're looking for.
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#3
09-28-2005, 08:02 PM
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Re: KQs before the flop--help figuring probabilities
Chip EV won't tell you what you need to know in a tournament. ICM will.
You need to do the calculation for folding, calling-and-winning, and calling-and-losing. ICM tells you how much of the prize pool each scenario is worth. Then you can use the winning probabilities if you call from Poker Stove to get the $EV for calling overall.
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