Seat selection and variance

[suited_ace]

I'm a SnG player, and usually I pick up whatever seat is available when I'm starting my games. On the very long term, variance should balance itself out, regardless of the seat I chose.

But what about the short term? By choosing my seats somewhat randomly (we all tend to have a few patterns when it comes to choosing anything) am I increasing the possibility of a bad/good run?

[AaronBrown]

I'm not sure what you mean. Obviously, you'd like to deal the first hand, that slightly reduces your expected total blind contributions. Also, it's nice if the aggressive/loose players are to your right with passive/tight players to your left; but it's hard to control that or even know it before you start. Neither of these are large effects.

[suited_ace]

OK, maybe an example will help... In any STT there will be seats "luckier" then others. There's always a seat that gets better hands than the rest in a given tournament, because the sample size is so small.

My hypothesis is that by choosing a different seat each time you play you end up increasing the chance of having a good or a bad run.

In a way, you can transfer my question to betting on roulette. Say you have enough money to make 100 bets and you're only betting on individual numbers. I want to know if betting always on the same number will reduce the variance inside that small sample.

[Jimbo]

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In a way, you can transfer my question to betting on roulette. Say you have enough money to make 100 bets and you're only betting on individual numbers. I want to know if betting always on the same number will reduce the variance inside that small sample.


[/ QUOTE ]

If the wheel is not biased the answer is no. For that matter the answer to your seating question (since it is not based on player makeup) is no as well.