A problem that has really confused me...please help

dpape · #1 09-22-2005, 05:51 PM

Alright, i usually only post about poker on here, but I got a different situation here. I would appreciate any help. I am in a fatansy football league, 10 people. I play with a bunch of tight asses...and the original idea was to all pay 10 dollars. After week two though, I have made it clear to everyone we need to at least go to 20 bucks a person. So, how can we adjust the total buy in to accamodate to those who are 0-2? Here is the situation. 6 teams are 1-1, 2 teams are 2-0, and 2 teams are 0-2.
Question 1) What % chance of winning does each team have of winning...assuming each team has even chance (10%) at the start of the season.
Question 2) If the base buy in is now 20 dollars, how can the buy in be ajusted accordingly.

Exclude the strength of schedule and strength of each team for future.
Thanks guys. D Pape

AaronBrown · #2 09-22-2005, 06:26 PM

You might be interested to know this is an ancient problem, called the problem of the points, and solving it was the birth of probability theory in 1654. Or you might not.

We need a few more details about your league. Do you play a 16 game schedule, or all 17 weeks? Do you settle by regular season record or have playoffs? What is the payout structure?

For most kinds of league, it would be approximately fair for the 2-0 guys to kick in $15, the 1-1 $10 and the 0-2 $7. See if you can make that fly. My guess is both the 2-0 and 0-2 guys will gripe. But why play fantasy if you don't like to hear guys gripe?

dpape · #3 09-22-2005, 07:27 PM

Ok, we are playing all 17 weeks, with a playoff structure for the last two weeks which 4 people will advance to. I believe we are going to do 60% to the winner and 40 % of the pot to 2nd.
I think most have actually agreed to paying the 20 dollars, but i kind of want to solve this out of spite. Someone said i wouldn't be able to solve it...and there right...lol.
Being a poker player it is driving me crazy.