Just Another $22 Bubble Dilemma

[kevstreet]

I tried to clean this up, the hand converter isn't working for me.

NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee
Level:6 Blinds(100/200)

Seat 7 is the button

Total number of players : 4

Seat 5: BB ( $205 )

Seat 6: HERO UTG ( $1465 )

Seat 7: CO ( $1430 )

Seat 1: SB ( $4900 )


Level:6

Blinds(100/200)

** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to HERO [ 8h Ac ]

The chip leader has been pretty sharp and astute w/ bubble play. Any limping or min-raises he's come over the top and hasn't had to show down for a little while. That said, I wouldn't put it past him to fold to the BB to leave him in the game (I'm pretty sure I would)

What's your line?

[45suited]

Fold.

If you raise, there's too great a chance you'll get pushed off your hand by chipleader. Then, if shorty wins, the gap between you is much smaller.

If you call, you still will likely get pushed off your hand as well.

Pushing would be absolutely suicidal, chipleader can bust you and shorty can fold in the BB and have 5 chips remaining. (Even if he had under 200, I'm folding here as well.) A8 is just not strong enough to get involved with here. Just fold.

[unreal_nh]

pushhhh

[ilya]

I think you have to minraise or limp planning to fold to a big-stack all-in if BB folds; your hand is just too good to let shorty get a walk from big stack.

Hmmm I wonder. If big stack always pushes over the top, and shorty always folds, should you minraise here with A2C?

This situation has been discussed before...anyone remember the link?

[diebitter]

If the SB is playing the fact you're on the bubble, you need to get rid of the little stack - so you need to get heads up.

It's fold or all-in to stop the big stack pushing you off: I'd all-in, but either is fine.

If you've been folding to a lot of bullying, then your all-in improves as an option, BTW.

[kevstreet]

Well, after 3 responses, I've received 3 completely different answers: 1 push; 1 fold; 1 limp/min-raise.
I take solace in the fact that this isn't as clear
cut as I feared it would be.

[45suited]

Shorty getting a walk is not the end of the world. Here's some scenarios:

1) You fold, shorty gets a walk, now he has t305, you're still in fine shape to ITM.

2) You mini-raise, biggie comes over the top, shorty throws in his last 5 chips, you fold, shorty wins the hand.

Now you are down to 1065 (865 after posting), shorty has 615 (515 after posting). Now the first two guys fold again, and shorty pushes into you from the SB.

Hope your hand holds up, cuz if you lose, you're the shortstack. There is too great a chance for this scenario to occur here. A8 is not that great anyway. Shorty getting a walk and getting up to t305 is not the end of the world, but scenario #2 royally sucks. FOLD.

A8 UTG is not that great a hand in this situation, guys.

[ilya]

If shorty calls, I think you also call. You can't give him credit for a big hand cos he only has 5 left if he folds and he knows you'll probably fold to big stack's push.

[45suited]

Why is everyone so afraid of shorty getting a walk? It's not like it's the end of the world or anything and, more importantly, it's not like A8o UTG 4-handed is some kind of monster hand.

So... shorty gets a walk and is all the way up to t305. Our A8 is only ~60% vs his random hand anyway. Now you factor in the very good chance that any raise less than AI means that bigstack pushes... You are simultaneously giving away your cushion vs the shortstack and possibly tripling him up if he happens to win the hand.

Why? I mean, why are we, who are comfortable, the ones taking the chance of finishing OOTM here? Just be patient, let bigstack do his thing, if shorty gets a walk, we're still fine w/o having to walk any tightropes or anything.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is everyone so afraid of shorty getting a walk? It's not like it's the end of the world or anything and, more importantly, it's not like A8o UTG 4-handed is some kind of monster hand.

So... shorty gets a walk and is all the way up to t305. Our A8 is only ~60% vs his random hand anyway. Now you factor in the very good chance that any raise less than AI means that bigstack pushes... You are simultaneously giving away your cushion vs the shortstack and possibly tripling him up if he happens to win the hand.

Why? I mean, why are we, who are comfortable, the ones taking the chance of finishing OOTM here? Just be patient, let bigstack do his thing, if shorty gets a walk, we're still fine w/o having to walk any tightropes or anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, cos next hand (after shorty gets a walk), UTG folds, big stack pushes on the button, shorty folds in the SB and we have to fold also...hand after that big stack raises and we fold our SB...hand after that we can't push on the button cos big stack is in the big blind...