How much money will I make with this hand?

[DavidC]

Hey guys, please let me tell you a story about a hand dealt in a private game at the Bellagio. It's a Limit Holdem game, with stakes of $500/$1000:

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I'm dealt T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]o. I've been drinking a bit, and before you know it, I'm at the flop, heads-up and out of position with one opponent, who has A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. The pot is 8SB... I come to my senses and decide to play perfect poker.

Flop comes up 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

As the dealer was flopping the cards, he fumbled the deck, and revealed the remaining T's, 9's, and aces. The floorman was call over, who decided to light them on fire with his zippo, before tossing them into a trash can.

We complained that there were fewer cards in the deck now, so he brought over 8 jokers and put them in the deck, and had the deck reshuffled. The jokers can be turned up on the turn and river, just like regular cards, except that neither player can use them for anything, nor do they affect the board. They're just blanks.

Now, our opponent is 100% predictable, because he's a computer program with perfect circuitry. I know, I know, it's weird, but I hang out with a pretty crazy group of guys.

His name is Silicon Slim, and he's very predictable. He will play his hand in the following manner: He'll bet at every opportunity until he's raised. As soon as he's raised once throughout the course of the hand, he'll call down or check down: he's vulnerable to a single checkraise. If I bet at him at any point during the hand, he'l just call down for the rest of the hand.

Since I was the one who put up such a complaint about the burnt cards, the floorman rules that I'm not allowed to bet out on the flop. I can only check, or open-muck, if I choose.

So I check the flop to Slim, he bets, and I cleverly go for my raise... However, I fumble a few chips, and the dealer calls it a string-raise. I protest, the floorman threatens me with the zippo, and I calm down promptly. It's been judged that I've called the flop bet.

I'm planning to therefore chase my draw, checkraise if I hit, as soon as I hit, and fold the river if I miss.

I know this has been a long story, so I'll only ask a quick question: How much money do I expect to make or lose from the flop forward in this hand (including my flop call)?

I can't really remember what happened before the flop... it's possible that the dealer was putting in for me out of his chip tray or something, so we can't really count the preflop as part of the EV on the hand. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Anyways, any help would be appreciated.

Sincerely,
DavidC.

[LetYouDown]

Were you drinking or a bit or on some kind of hallucinogen? I hope this is a hypothetical question only and that if this ever happened, you never returned to that card room.

Why didn't you just ask, what are the odds of me winning this hand with a straight?

The only thing (I'm guessing) that affects the probability of winning the hand is that you can hit by a running two pair or running trips. So the odds of you hitting the straight should be:

1 - C(37,2)/C(45,2) = 1 - 666/990 = 32.7272...%

[AdamL]

Man you have no idea. This is only half the true story. He left out the part about the flaming android and the poker-playing dolphin.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
Were you drinking or a bit or on some kind of hallucinogen?


[/ QUOTE ]

The mysterious DavidC reveals none of his secrets!

[ QUOTE ]


I hope this is a hypothetical question only and that if this ever happened, you never returned to that card room.

Why didn't you just ask, what are the odds of me winning this hand with a straight?


[/ QUOTE ]

Because I know the odds. I'm interested in figuring out how much money I'm going to make with a specific line, though, and I can't figure it out.

[ QUOTE ]


The only thing (I'm guessing) that affects the probability of winning the hand is that you can hit by a running two pair or running trips.

[/ QUOTE ]

You'd think that, right? But then you have to remember that hte dealer fumbled the deck, and the floorman burnt the cards with his zippo... no backdoor anything for me today, as long as I'm careful on my way out of the cardroom. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[BigBiceps]

The EV = 0.

Your dream will end when the mushrooms wear off.