win rates : The shape of the curve

[Warren Whitmore]

Lets use 7-card stud 10:20 as an example. Because of the rake by definition the win rate is around negative $10/hour. My question is although the center of the bell curve is going to be positioned at negative ten, is it going to decline equally in both directions or is it going to be bimodal to account for professional players?

[Robk]

It has to be right skew. I would guess two thirds are in the -18 to +5 dollars per hour interval.

[crazy canuck]

I think the distribution would be determined by the composition of players, and it would be approximately normal just like financial markets.

[crazy canuck]

One more thing to add. While the normality assumption doesn't work for financial markets (like option pricing), it's good enough for poker players.