Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 04-17-2003, 05:09 PM
Noo Yawk Noo Yawk is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 288
Default probability of 6,7 or 8 coming on the flop

One of the regulars in the room I play made even money bets that a 6, 7 or 8 would hit the flop. He took a few hundred from some players last night doing this. What is his edge here, and how would I do the math?
Thanks in advance.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 04-17-2003, 06:09 PM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 1,636
Default Re: probability of 6,7 or 8 coming on the flop

Assuming nobody looked at their cards first, the probability of a 6,7, or 8 is 1 minus the probability of no 6,7,8 = 1 - (40/52)(39/51)(38/50) = 55.3%. He had a 9.4% edge. It would be 14% if he looked at his cards and didn't have one assuming others would always bet if even if they didn't have one.

I've been getting people to give me 2-1 that a pair will appear in 5 cards. It's really about even money, so half the time I win the big bet, and half the time I lose the small bet, so I average winning the small bet. That's a 100% return on my money. One guy asked me if I had no shame, which of course I don't. "It's immoral to let a sucker keep his money." People who can't figure probabilities and bet anyway deserve to lose money to those who can. [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img]
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 04-17-2003, 06:42 PM
Noo Yawk Noo Yawk is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 288
Default Re: probability of 6,7 or 8 coming on the flop

Thanks Bruce, I was hoping to get your response.
Yeah, it was quite the display. From what he told me, there were several takers.
Thanks again-NY
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 04-17-2003, 07:02 PM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 1,636
Default Re: probability of 6,7 or 8 coming on the flop

Here's something interesting about my bet. I have a 100% edge since I win 100% of the money I bet. The suckers only have a 50% disadvantage because they lose 50% of the money they bet. The edge of one player doesn't have to equal the disadvantage of the other player when the amounts wagered are different. In terms of all the money bet by the suckers and me combined, I win 67% of that money, and they win 33%.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 04-17-2003, 07:22 PM
RiverMel RiverMel is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 552
Default Re: probability of 6,7 or 8 coming on the flop

Thanks, bruce, for giving me two new tricks to try out with friends. I mean, "friends."
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 04-17-2003, 08:29 PM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 1,636
Default oops, correction

2-1 on even money is not a 100% return on investment, it's a 50% return on investment. .5(2) - .5(1) = .5. To be precise, this bet is .493(2) - .507(1) = 47.9% edge. The suckers are at a disadvantage of .47.9%/2 = 24% since they lose what I win, but they bet twice as much. Also, I don't win 67% of the money that goes in, only half, but 2/3 of this is my opponent's money.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 04-18-2003, 12:22 PM
Funksolebro Funksolebro is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: WestPalmBeach,FL
Posts: 12
Default Re: oops, correction

So what are the odds of any single card coming up on the flop?
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 04-18-2003, 01:56 PM
Tekari Tekari is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 76
Default Re: oops, correction

Same thing, 1 - probability of no 6 = 1 - [(48/52)(47/51)(46/50)] = 18.6%
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:39 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.