Stupid "what is the odds" question

Vehn · #1 04-02-2003, 12:29 AM

I use statking and keep good updates. So far I have played 27.5 hours of B&M $15/$30 hold'em and have yet to be dealt pocket aces. Anyone wanna try?

Homer · #2 04-02-2003, 01:08 AM

Odds of getting AA = (4/52)*(3/51) = 1/221

Odds of not getting AA = 220/221

Number of hands played in 27.5 hours = 35 (?) * 27.5 = 963 hands

Odds of not getting AA in 963 hands = (220/221)^963 = 1.27%

-- Homer

Vehn · #3 04-02-2003, 01:18 AM

Thanks! Now what's the odds of my win rate really being $47/hour and my SD really being 9.5... [img]/forums/images/icons/tongue.gif[/img]

Bob T. · #4 04-07-2003, 10:56 AM

And that includes your first session where you got slapped around. Your running good.

Vehn · #5 04-07-2003, 12:32 PM

Yeah.. I was [img]/forums/images/icons/tongue.gif[/img] Lost twice in a row now for the first time in a while but oh well, guess I should have expected that after 12 wins in a row. I may need rethink the whole "half of what I win doesn't go back into the bankroll" thing as I get the feeling that the bankroll will never really increase as my losses will likely nearly offset my "half-wins" and I'll never make any progress on finishing up my $15/$30 BR. May be wise to switch to keeping all of what I win if I go below my high water mark (lose) until its back up. If I like, knew math, I could probably figure out how long it would take me to accumulate 130 big bets at $15/$30 if my actual win rate is $40/hr (estimate) and my SD is 9, and half of what I win each session is added to my bankroll but losses are deducted in full. *hint hint*

p.s. 32.5 hours, still no AA [img]/forums/images/icons/frown.gif[/img] Weird.

Vehn · #6 04-09-2003, 12:27 AM

at 34 hours. Got em twice today and they held up too. Woo.

Bob T. · #7 04-09-2003, 05:34 AM

I just went through a long streak without AA, 1157 hands, not sure exactly how many hours, but I lost to 98 suited who coldcalled two bets to get into the pot.

Then on tuesday, and 5:54 pm, I got AA with 6 minutes to go in the Aces never lose promotion, Flopped a set on a monotone board, and got the board to pair on the river, no $75 consolation prize for me [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img], I'll take the 17 Big Bet pot, thank you.