Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 08-19-2005, 06:42 AM
VivaLaViking VivaLaViking is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 97
Default Question for the whizes.

When you count your outs you count single card outs. The relevent percentages can easily be calculated mentally within a fraction of a percent. But commonly other outs may also exist, multiple card outs, when two card values are needed as for a straight. Not that you would bet on runner-runner but it must increase your overall probability. Could it be calculated as a fraction of an out (eg 6 1/2 outs)? How could this be incorporated in calculating the probability of improving yor hand?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 08-19-2005, 09:32 AM
Tom1975 Tom1975 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 132
Default Re: Question for the whizes.

IIRC, SSHE says a backdoor flush and a backdoor straight with no gaps are worth about 1.5 outs on the flop. I think a 1-gap BD straight is worth 1 out, and a 2 gapper is .5 outs.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 08-19-2005, 10:37 AM
VivaLaViking VivaLaViking is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 97
Default Re: Question for the whizes.

I don't know what IIRC, SSHE is. A one-gap straight is 4 outs assuming the filling card is live (generally unless dealer mishandles). An open ender is 8 outs. So the qustion resolves to the outs for a straight needing two cards, either a 2-gap or 1-gap with needing either end and completing a 3-flush. Thank you for responding so I must keep podering.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 08-19-2005, 10:38 AM
Tom1975 Tom1975 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 132
Default Re: Question for the whizes.

For a real example, say you have Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and the flop comes 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. When calculating your outs, you would give yourself 6 outs for the overcards, 1.5 outs for the backdoor flush and another 1.5 out for the backdoor straight, for a total of nine outs. Of course pairing one of your overs won't always win, so you should partially discount those outs.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 08-19-2005, 10:40 AM
Tom1975 Tom1975 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 132
Default Re: Question for the whizes.

IIRC= If I recall correctly
SSHE= Small Stakes Hold 'em (by Ed Miller, et al)
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 08-19-2005, 10:46 AM
VivaLaViking VivaLaViking is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 97
Default Re: Question for the whizes.

I think I'll do some math on your example and see how well it correlates as soon as I have time. I'll post my results if you are interested.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 08-22-2005, 11:42 AM
VivaLaViking VivaLaViking is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 97
Default Re: Question for the whizes.

I want to see if I can calculate these fractional outs and correlate the percentages with known probabilities of outs and/or see if they are significant enough to even consider.

First I will start when a 3-flush flops. You will need runner-runner suited. Is this the correct math?

(10 C 1) * (9 C 1) / (52 C 5)
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 08-22-2005, 11:56 AM
Tom1975 Tom1975 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 132
Default Re: Question for the whizes.

No, it's simply (10/47)*(9/46). On the turn there are 47 unknown cards, 10 of which help your flush draw. If you hit one, there are 9 out of 46 cards on the river which complete your flush.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 08-22-2005, 12:11 PM
VivaLaViking VivaLaViking is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 97
Default Re: Question for the whizes.

Tom, if that math is correct your chances of getting a back door flush is ~ .4% This sounds about right but I don't know. Improving a hand with 2 outs by the river from the flop is ~8.4%. so that infers a back door flush is only about .2 outs. Does that sound correct to you?
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 08-22-2005, 12:28 PM
Tom1975 Tom1975 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 132
Default Re: Question for the whizes.

You're off by a decimal place, it's 4%, not .4%
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:04 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.