how much do you bet?

#1 08-19-2005, 04:04 AM

How much do you bet so your heads up opponents doestn't have the odds to call a flush draw after the flop?

benneh · #2 08-19-2005, 06:00 AM

3/4 to the size of the pot.

VivaLaViking · #3 08-19-2005, 10:57 AM

Assuming you don't have one of his flush cards and the flop has only two of the suited cards that concern you; he has about a 35% chance on the flop of hitting by the river. Assuming if he doesn't hit you will win; 35/100 times he wins and 65/100 you win. Consider a pot, P that now has been increased by your bet, B. If the flop bet is small enough that the relationship, B <= .35P, is true; he is correct in calling. You want to make it incorrect for him. I think 3/4 is high but it certainly should be better than his winning expectation, 35%. Having said that there is no amount that will stop some callers.

mosdef · #4 08-19-2005, 12:11 PM

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If the flop bet is small enough that the relationship, B <= .35P, is true; he is correct in calling.

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you're overlooking the fact that hero gets to throw in another bet on the turn (assuming the flop bet doesn't put one of them all-in).

VivaLaViking · #5 08-19-2005, 12:22 PM

The way I look at that is that is Villians problem and he better consider it. His chance of hitting a 4-flush on the turn or river is ~19% each, but a 4-flush on the turn and river inclusive is 35%. This response was geared to just preventing him from seeing the turn. Wasn't that the question?

mosdef · #6 08-19-2005, 12:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The way I look at that is that is Villians problem and he better consider it. His chance of hitting a 4-flush on the turn or river is ~19% each, but a 4-flush on the turn and river inclusive is 35%. This response was geared to just preventing him from seeing the turn. Wasn't that the question?

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yeah, but that's why don't need to include the prob of hitting on the river in your calculation of the bet size on the flop.

suppose pot = 65 on the flop. Your calc says you should bet at least 35 or your opponent would be correct to call (because at the threshold of 35, he is getting paid 100 if he hits, and he has a 35% of hitting).

but this isn't right unless the opponent knows that you can't put more money in on the turn. for example, lets say you bet 25. then he needs to call 25 to get paid 90 if he hits. but it's still wrong for him to call (even though 25/90<35%) because if he misses on the turn you can stick him for another 50 bet (for example).

he doesn't get to see the river for free if he calls the flop bet. am i misinterpretting something in your post?

VivaLaViking · #7 08-19-2005, 12:40 PM

Mosdef your a slavedriver (lol). I'm in the break of a poker touney but I'll do the math as soon as possible but given that the flush could be hit on the turn and he has a 19% chance of hitting on the turn. What is the minimum you would bet on the flop to make the opponent incorrect to see the turn.

mosdef · #8 08-19-2005, 12:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Mosdef your a slavedriver (lol). I'm in the break of a poker touney but I'll do the math as soon as possible but given that the flush could be hit on the turn and he has a 19% chance of hitting on the turn. What is the minimum you would bet on the flop to make the opponent incorrect to see the turn.

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just do your original calc with 19% instead of 35%.

and you actually shouldn't bet just so that it's right at 19%, where he's basically even money to call.

also, it's easier to state things in terms of the pot BEFORE your bet, not after. I think you'll find that any bet larger than 23.4% of the pot is enough that he'll be wrong to call (assuming that you can make another bet on the turn and that he has zero implied odds, i.e. you're not putting in another chip if a flush card comes).

the final answer is: you should bet the maximum amount that the opponent will call, subject to the constraint that your bet is at least 23.4% of the pot.

VivaLaViking · #9 08-19-2005, 01:19 PM

Well, I think you should post that question. To wit: How should the margin be calculated for your flop bet to prevent your opponent from seeing the turn. Should you use his probability of making his hand on the next card or his combined probability of making his hand with two cards.

Mosdef, I can see the validity in both these reasons but at least we agree that 75% is overkill.

mosdef · #10 08-19-2005, 01:32 PM

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Mosdef, I can see the validity in both these reasons but at least we agree that 75% is overkill.

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Unless he'll call it. If he'll call an all-in, that's appropriate.