2 math questions

[vkotlyar]

Hey everyone. Im having a little trouble wiht this. WHat is the probability of hitting two flush cards on the flop in holdem if you are holding two flush cards preflop? According to my calculations, it 11/50x10/49x3/2 = bout 8 percent. If this is the correct answer, then you are never getting enough odds to play just suited cards. Now, lets say that you have a small suited connector. Whats the probability of hitting either a flush or an up and down straight draw? According to my calc ( and im prob wrong, so please correct me) its about 15%. If these numbers are right, is it ever worth it to play suited connectors? i know that they can make trips and two pair, but that doesnt happend that often either. Just something to think about. I appreciate the math help.

[irchans]

I got a slightly different answer for the probability of getting two flush cards.

3* 11/50 10/49 * (52 - 13)/48. = 0.109439

[irchans]

Calculating the probability of floping a 4-straight is trickier. My ruff estimate is 11%. The exact probability of either a 4-straight or a 4-flush is trickier still. My ruff estimate is 20%. This brings up a few other interesting questions.

When faced with a tricky probability problem like this one, what is the quickest way to estimate the answer? What is the quickest way to get the exact answer? What method is the most likely to be correct (least likely to have a human error)?