Should I have called this flop bet and chased?

Were my pot odds correct to call this bet on a draw?

$5 + $0.50 Sit & Go (1007552), Table 1 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:39:08 ET - 2005/07/21
Seat 2: bwconvention (5,090)
Seat 7: teverage (4,260)
Seat 9: dcr26 (4,150)
dcr26 posts the small blind of 100
bwconvention posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bwconvention [Jc Qd]
teverage raises to 400
dcr26 raises to 600
bwconvention calls 400
teverage calls 200
*** FLOP *** [Kd 2d Th]
dcr26 bets 400
bwconvention calls 400
teverage raises to 1,200
dcr26 folds
bwconvention has 15 seconds left to act
bwconvention calls 800
*** TURN *** [Kd 2d Th] [5s]
bwconvention checks
teverage bets 2,460, and is all in
bwconvention has 15 seconds left to act
bwconvention folds
Uncalled bet of 2,460 returned to teverage
teverage shows [9h 9s] (a pair of Nines)
teverage wins the pot

[wiggs73]

The pot is offering you 4.75:1 to call the raise on the flop. Your odds of hitting on the turn are 6.5:1. So you should fold unless you think there's a good chance of getting a free look at the river, which after the raise, I doubt there is.

just so i understand better why are my odds as such? i fig.
it was close but called anyway. ty

[wiggs73]

600*3 pre-flop. 400*2 on the flop, plus the 1200 raise. So the pot is at t3800 and it costs you 800 to call. 3800/800 = 4.75 so you're getting 4.75:1 on your money.

You have 6 outs for a straight. There are 52 cards in the deck - 2 in your hand - 2 in his hand - 3 on the board. 45 cards left. That leaves 39 cards that don't help and 6 that do. 39/6 = 6.5. 4.75 < 6.5 so don't call.

Your odds would change if you had 2 shots at catching the straight, but it's highly unlikely that you will after that raise, so I didn't factor that in.

cool, thanks for the lesson.

[wiggs73]

No prob.

FWIW, with the pot where it is and the guy leading with a bet of 400 into a t1800 pot, I'd probably make a play and raise the flop here. His bet seems weak to me. Also, you would have invested about the same amount of chips but taken the lead in the hand. If you get played back at, you can probably assume you're beaten. You get a lot more info this way for the same price. And you also keep hands like 99 from making the same sort of play on you.

what would be a good flop bet you think?

[wiggs73]

I probably would have popped it to 1600 or 1700. I think it's a good spot for a semi-bluff. You're chip leader so you have plenty of fold equity, you had what appears to be a weak bet made at you, the pot is large and worth trying to take down, and you have some outs incase you get called.

I'm going to bed now, I'll have to let someone else hop on this thread with you.

thanks again Wiggs

[kuro]

Why not fold preflop? Looks like sb and button are about to go at it with the minraise and minreraise. If you stay out of it you increase the liklihood that one of them busts.