positive chip EV, negative $EV? Im looking for some examples.

howdy. Long time listener, first time caller here. I figured id get off my fat ass and actually aquire a membership here so I can participate in a more meaningfull way.

I was trying to think of examples in which youd expect to gain chips in the long run, yet lose money in the long run. I realize that its in your best interest to avoid large confrontations in which your edge is small especially in the begining. I was thinking more about cases when your on the bubble and theres a short stack one away from the big blind that doesnt have the big blind covered. It might be correct to fold almost any two cards if someone with a larger stack than yours pushes.

Ive come up with a couple more but im sure theres alot of situations like that out there. Im also wondering if some of the programs that calculate fold equity take this (prize structure) into account.


Also if you find yourself in a situation with a fairly strong hand and you suspect that the raiser knows what you know (your going to fold a HUGE range of hands in this position) should you still fold?

[SlackerMcFly]

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I was trying to think of examples in which youd expect to gain chips in the long run, yet lose money in the long run.

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I would expect to gain chips of smaller denonimations (but have a lot more of them) if I pushed any two UTG in level 1. That would be one way to turn 80 $10 chips into 100 $1.00 chips quickly.

Welcome to the forum. Please be a little more specific in your request for advice (post a single hand that you are curious about), or share a poker-related experience with the group. Note the stickies at the top of the first page. Good place to start looking for ICM and EV type questions that others have explained ad nauseum.

Good luck at the tables!

SlackerMcSkinnyDork - Who is also ugly, but who cares?

[johnnybeef]

UTG 350
Button: 5500
SB: 3150
BB (hero): 1000

Blinds are 200/400, standard party poker payout.

Button raises to 1000, SB Folds. Here it would be +cEV considering that you are getting 2:1 on your call, but utg will be all in on the next hand.

[SlackerMcFly]

Folding is the only way to lose both money and chips in the long run.

How does folding this lose you chips in the long run AND lose you money in the long run?

If you call and lose, you lose both chips and money immediately (unless you have the better hand and win).

If you call and win, then you have MADE both chips and money (ostensibly in position to sneak into 3rd place when shorty busts).

If you fold, you are left with t600, but have MADE money assuming that UTG busts out and you sneak into the money. Since you will be the SB and will have to commit 200 of your puny 600 stack on the next hand to the 350 all-in BB, what is your play then?

Fold and you have 400 to his 550, thus losing both chips and money in the long run (answer to the initial question).

Beefy just forgot to add the second fold to his post, so I had to fix it for him (again).

Great to see you around Beefcake!

[lastchance]

Folding loses you chips here, but wins you money. You can get ITM through folding, and you have a pretty good shot. But if you gamble now, your ITM chances decrease a lot.

An even clearer example is this:
UTG - 1
Button - 1
SB - 4000
BB - 4000
Approximately.

Here, SB could push with any 2, and you'd manage to fold AQ, because you have 2nd locked up right now, for nearly .4 (2nd + 1/2 chance of first) equity at least, but calling while increasing your equity to nearly .5 (the payout for winning) may make you go broke.

Here, you need to be nearly 80% to win for you to call any hand, but for any call to be +Chip EV, you only need to 50% against opponents range, slightly less.

[durron597]

Here's another, different example.

Stacks:

UTG = t1
Hero (Button) = t10
SB = t4000
BB = t4000

Blinds: 200/400

UTG folds.

You should fold AA here. UTG will be allin in the blind next hand and even if he triples up you will still cover him when you both post the blind next hand. And even if you triple up you will still have to post the blind allin in two hands so you don't gain.

[Scuba Chuck]

durron, very good example. This would be hard to do. At least you could say "I folded AA preflop." But this is very correct. It's at least easy to fold KK...

Scuba

This actually happened to a friend of mine in one of those rediculous speed tournaments. Basically he was left with some very very small fraction of the big blind on the button (final table) with AA. A big stack went all in and the blinds were already forced all in. He folded and moved up like 4 spots.

[AleoMagus]

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I realize that its in your best interest to avoid large confrontations in which your edge is small especially in the begining

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This is not actually true when you say especially in the beginning. You will find that this is far more applicable later in a SNG than it is in the beginning.

In the beginning, your motive to avoid confrontations with a small edge generally only arises out of skill-inequity considerations. It is later in tourneys that $EV considerations begin to dictate play based on the prize distribution.

As an example (which is what you are asking, I guess) consider a situation where you held a hand like 77 on the bubble. The only stack bigger than you pushes all-in and he has been very aggressive (probably only overcards). You have the edge here, but this is a clear fold (even if you knew for a fact that he held AK, which would be +CEV for you).

Regards
Brad S

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This is not actually true when you say especially in the beginning. You will find that this is far more applicable later in a SNG than it is in the beginning.

In the beginning, your motive to avoid confrontations with a small edge generally only arises out of skill-inequity considerations. It is later in tourneys that $EV considerations begin to dictate play based on the prize distribution.


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Thanks for the example. I was looking for an example that didnt involve a short stack going broke soon.

I disagree with your motivation for avoiding confrontations in the beginning of the tournament. Survival is huge.

If you decide to take 3 gambles that leave you all in but you are a 60 percent favorite to win, your going to go broke almost 80 percent of the time. If every time you called an all in with a pocket pair knowing your opponent has overcards it would be very difficult for you to be a winning player. If two of these situations arise in the beginning that leave you all in.......AT BEST youll have an ITM of around 30%.