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#1
02-22-2003, 05:47 PM
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Academy Awards betting lines
All lines are real and available for wagering. Any thoughts? Any value? Any steals? Cmon movie geeks, help me out here!
Sun 3/23 Best Actor 101 D. Day Lewis (gangs of New York) +100 102 J. Nicholson (About Schmidt) +130 103 A. Brody (The Pianist) +800 104 M. Caine (The Quiet American) +1200 105 N. Cage (Adaptation) +1600 Best Actress Sun 3/23 Best Actress 201 N. Kidman (The Hours) -130 202 J. Moore (Far From Heaven) +260 203 R. Zellweger (Chicago) +410 204 D. Lane (Unfaithful) +1050 205 S. Hayek (Frida) +1600 Best Director Sun 3/23 Best Director 301 M. Scorsese (Gangs of New York) -170 302 R. Marshall (Chicago) +300 303 S. Daldry (The Hours) +500 304 R. Polanski (The Pianist) +1000 305 P. Almodovar (Talk To Her) +1600 Best Picture Sun 3/23 Best Picture 401 Chicago -220 402 The Hours +350 403 Gangs Of New York +450 404 The Pianist +1600 405 The Lord of the Rings The Two Towers +1800 Best Supporting Actor Sun 3/23 Best Supporting Actor 501 C. Cooper (Adaptation) -185 502 E. Harris (The Hours) +450 503 P. Newman (Road to Perdition) +550 504 J. Reilly (Chicago) +800 505 C. Walken (Catch Me If You Can) +1000 Best Supporting Actress Sun 3/23 Best Supporting Actress 601 M. Streep (Adaptation) +125 602 C. Zeta Jones (Chicago) +175 603 J. Moore (The Hours) +400 604 K. Bates (About Schmidt) +700 605 Queen Latifah (Chicago) +2000 
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#3
02-22-2003, 10:32 PM
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Re: Academy Awards betting lines
I can only assume the outcome isn't known or the votes not tabulated yet. Because you can bet cash money on those lines.
I'd like to see what the forum movie guys think about this.
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#5
02-23-2003, 01:10 PM
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Re: Academy Awards betting lines
Clark,
Hollywood loves epics, but it also loves the occasional surprise, along with humanist themes. Look for Polanski in a huge upset. Is there a better actor working today than Julianne Moore? No. Take her for best supporting actress. John
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#6
02-23-2003, 01:56 PM
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Re: Academy Awards betting lines
At least you aren't a chalk player like Z. [img]/forums/images/icons/wink.gif[/img]
+400 on Moore doesn't sound too bad. So I'm looking at Moore and Chicago. You agree with Z that Chicago has way better than a 70% chance to get Best Picture?
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#9
02-25-2003, 07:11 PM
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Re: Academy Awards betting lines
Note: I am thinking of these like I would a horse race - not necessarily who I think will win, but who has the best value.
Sun 3/23 Best Actor 101 D. Day Lewis (gangs of New York) +100 102 J. Nicholson (About Schmidt) +130 103 A. Brody (The Pianist) +800 104 M. Caine (The Quiet American) +1200 105 N. Cage (Adaptation) +1600 I don't see any huge overlay, Day-Lewis and Nicholson are both getting a lot of talk here. Given Day-Lewis' sabbatical from films, he might get the edge here (absence makes the heart...). Caine is interesting at +1200. I haven't seen the performance, but he could sneak in if Jack and Daniel offset a lot of each other's votes. Maybe someone else could speak more on this, but I am under the impression he is popular with the Academy. Still a longshot either way, just a matter of value. I just took Caine myself on WSEX - he is getting a higher payout there. Sun 3/23 Best Actress 201 N. Kidman (The Hours) -130 202 J. Moore (Far From Heaven) +260 203 R. Zellweger (Chicago) +410 204 D. Lane (Unfaithful) +1050 205 S. Hayek (Frida) +1600 No one I love at these numbers, though if you made me pick (and take the line) I would have a tough choice between Moore and Zellweger. In fact, I might take both if I could get better odds (banking on one of them upsetting the favorite). Sun 3/23 Best Director 301 M. Scorsese (Gangs of New York) -170 302 R. Marshall (Chicago) +300 303 S. Daldry (The Hours) +500 304 R. Polanski (The Pianist) +1000 305 P. Almodovar (Talk To Her) +1600 I agree with Scorsese as the one to beat. Given the numbers though I don't see any serious overlays, they seem about right. Sun 3/23 Best Picture 401 Chicago -220 402 The Hours +350 403 Gangs Of New York +450 404 The Pianist +1600 405 The Lord of the Rings The Two Towers +1800 This one is always tough. LOTR lost in this category last year, some saying it was because the franchise had two more chances to win. The odds don't seem to think they will win this year either. Hard to argue with Chicago on this one. I wouldn't put money on the movie though myself, not enough to win to make it interesting - I would only be worried about "not losing". If you forced me I would take Gangs of New York getting some + money, but I wouldn't expect it to come in. I see GONY is getting about 7-1 on WSEX. I just put some money on it at those odds to back up my talk. Best Supporting Actor Sun 3/23 Best Supporting Actor 501 C. Cooper (Adaptation) -185 502 E. Harris (The Hours) +450 503 P. Newman (Road to Perdition) +550 504 J. Reilly (Chicago) +800 505 C. Walken (Catch Me If You Can) +1000 This is a tough field. I have to admit I am partial to Reilly in Chicago, I thought he was great in that movie. I would really like to see him win, but +800 seems about right. I can't really pick anyone else though at the posted numbers. Best Supporting Actress Sun 3/23 Best Supporting Actress 601 M. Streep (Adaptation) +125 602 C. Zeta Jones (Chicago) +175 603 J. Moore (The Hours) +400 604 K. Bates (About Schmidt) +700 605 Queen Latifah (Chicago) +2000 Another tough crowd. Any of these could win, but all are priced about right. If my hand was forced I'd take Moore at +400. So Caine and Gangs of New York, if either one comes in I will have a nice little profit on the longshots for the night!
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#10
02-25-2003, 09:58 PM
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Re: Academy Awards betting lines
Good analysis, thanks.
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