Desperation part 2

[Newt_Buggs]

all taken from $55 with no known maniacs

Hand 1:
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (7 handed) converter

MP2 (t2320)
CO (t555)
Button (t2805)
SB (t1550)
BB (t1660)
Hero (t480)
MP1 (t630)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
hero?


Hand 2:
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (8 handed) converter

SB (t760)
BB (t2182)
Hero (t615)
UTG+1 (t1925)
MP1 (t775)
MP2 (t1165)
CO (t996)
Button (t1582)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
hero?

For those of you who say push on the first two, what if they were offsuit?

hand 3:
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (8 handed) converter

Button (t750)
SB (t2125)
BB (t1165)
UTG (t1260)
UTG+1 (t2010)
Hero (t620)
MP2 (t950)
CO (t1120)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, hero?

[bluewilde]

I'll take a shot at this, tell me if I get this uber wrong.

I think you have to push the first two hands because you're about to lose half your stack to the blinds and your ability to make your raises mean anything. I don't like this weak a hand under the gun, but I honestly think T7 is better than K7 because I think you're less likely to be called by something that dominates you; i.e. that you can get in with two live cards if you're lucky. 87s isn't as ambiguos, for me at least. And it's the presure of the blinds that forces this move, so unsuited I still feel compelled to push.

The last hand I fold because I'm afraid of domination and you get at least two more hands before you're forced to act.

Good reasoning or "BAH! STOP TALKING"?

[Newt_Buggs]

no, I like your reasoning and you're obviously thinking it through. "I honestly think T7 is better than K7 because I think you're less likely to be called by something that dominates you; i.e. that you can get in with two live cards if you're lucky" is probably wrong though, I would rather have K7 than T7 given the wide calling range of the blinds and the possibility of overpockets. I used to think that A2 in general sucked for pushing since you usually only get called when you're dominated, but SNGPT has shown me otherwise.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
I used to think that A2 in general sucked for pushing since you usually only get called when you're dominated, but SNGPT has shown me otherwise.

[/ QUOTE ]

A little off topic, but the only problem I have with SNGPT (or I should say, its application) is that sometimes the ranges that people put people on are kind of weird. For example, sometimes I see someone write "J7+, Q5s+, etc.", when really (this is very situation specific but it comes up) the only thing that you are really concerned with is big aces, broadways, and PPs. But sometimes I look at ranges that people take into consideration and I'm thinking "what are they thinking?" For that reason, regardless of what a program says, I'd rather push in the example with 78s than with A2o.

[barry111]

Newt, Does SNGPT tell you to push in all three cases?

[Newt_Buggs]

pushing A2o into an opponent who will only call with TT+,AQ+ is slightly more profitable than pushing 87s, mainly because you will get called less since there are only 3 aces left in the deck.

[ QUOTE ]

Newt, Does SNGPT tell you to push in all three cases?

[/ QUOTE ]
I've only run one of them through, but I'm fairly certain that SNGPT says that these are all -EV. These situations are a good example of where ICM fails though.

[45suited]

Yeah, I don't think I'd push any of the three, but I think that the best one is the 78s.

I'm certainly not criticizing SNGPT, but like I said, I've noticed that sometimes people include ranges that just seem bizarre to me.

[rydazzle]

1) Is that a T?!? push!
2) change of shorts please, push!

if non-suited I push the 1) for sure. If you werent posting BB next hand I'd let 2) go if offsuit but since you are posting I push 2) offsuit in your example.

3) good spot, the 3 hurts, K is good. I push here too.

[lastchance]

1. I think this is a shove. 3x BB, T7s which doesn't completely suck (top 60% or so)... Of course, I could be wrong.

2. 87s is certainly not better than T7s, and you've got 4x BB... I suppose I'd fold here.

3. Shove, you've got King high, and I think that's good enough here.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
1) Is that a T?!? push!
2) change of shorts please, push!

if non-suited I push the 1) for sure. If you werent posting BB next hand I'd let 2) go if offsuit but since you are posting I push 2) offsuit in your example.

3) good spot, the 3 hurts, K is good. I push here too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you serious or is my sarcasm detector broken?