It's gotta be close...??

DarrenX · #1 07-15-2005, 12:00 PM

Sorry, no HH... $215 sng, 25/50 blinds, 7 left.

UTG+1 (read- average player) with 875 opens to 150. SB donk who has luckboxed to 3480 with unorthadox plays and drawouts pushes. I'm in the BB around T1000 w/JJ and I OBVIOUSLY...?

45suited · #2 07-15-2005, 12:02 PM

I'd say you're ahead of SB, not sure about the initial raiser, but I think I have to push this.

mlagoo · #3 07-15-2005, 12:28 PM

push it real good

edit: guess i should include some reasoning.

i think your call makes it very hard for the raiser to overcall without QQ or better. Obviously you are crossing your fingers he doesn't have those hands. However, he could potentially fold some hands here that would be coin flips to you, which is obviously a good thing because you'd like to be heads up with the donkbox against his KJ or 77. I think with AQ, KQ, even AK, UTG could find a fold here.

DarrenX · #4 07-15-2005, 02:01 PM

I folded, as did the original bettor... my problem with pushing is my read on the sb- she's a donk, the big stack, and I have position on her. I think there's a good chance I'm a coin flip here, but I'm just not that desperate at this point. T800 and below I push...

45suited · #5 07-15-2005, 02:06 PM

That's interesting. My concern would not be the SB donk, but the original raiser. I would've pushed but I'd be interested to hear what others have to say.

DarrenX · #6 07-15-2005, 02:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That's interesting. My concern would not be the SB donk, but the original raiser. I would've pushed but I'd be interested to hear what others have to say.

[/ QUOTE ]

I muddled my thoughts there. I meant to say that it was more of an opportunity to have position on the huge-stacked donk for the rest of the tourney now than to try and double (+overlay) here. I definitely agree that the original raiser is still a concern.

Nottom · #7 07-15-2005, 03:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I muddled my thoughts there. I meant to say that it was more of an opportunity to have position on the huge-stacked donk for the rest of the tourney now than to try and double (+overlay) here.

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems like poor reasoning. You can double up here, and still have position on a donk with a big stack. You will very likely not get another opportunity as good as this to double up through the SB before you become desparate.

I think you are passing up too much nowEV for potential down the road EV.