bankroll, bonus whoring and risk of ruin

o0mr_bill0o · #1 05-04-2005, 03:02 PM

Okay, this is a crosspost from the internet gambling forum where i originally posted before realizing that this is probably the only place i'll get an answer...

At the point I'm at right now I'm not concerned with moving up another limit, instead I'm just using my poker as a supplementary source of income, withdrawing all money in my bankroll above 300 BBs at the beginning of every month. I find that due to various time constraints I basically play about 90-95% of the time while clearing a bonus. I think this effect my risk of ruin dramatically.

So, now that that setup is out of the way, I've been thinking that there has to be a way to factor bonus whoring into the RoR calculation. The bonus money represents a steady influx of money to your bankroll that occurs at a known rate, and is not influenced by chance at all. Therefore, i think it's obvious that having this steady flow of money will somehow affect your risk of ruin, and thus the bankroll you tend to need. I was thinking that there must be some way of factoring it in, perhaps figuring the average % of the time you play under a bonus, your limit, and the average playthrough requirement (i.e. 5x, 7x, etc.) Can anyone out there shed any light onto this situation?

olavfo · #2 05-04-2005, 04:39 PM

RoR follows from your win rate and standard deviation, right? Just estimate the average bonus income (per hour or per 100 hands) and add this to your win rate. Then recalculate your RoR using the "effective" win rate with bonus included.

Doesn't that sound about right?

olavfo

flair1239 · #3 05-04-2005, 05:39 PM

Also remember that ROR formulas assume a growing BR. So if after your bonus/rakeback is added in you are grossing 3.5bb/100, but you are withdrawing say 1.5BB/100, then you need to use 1BB/100 as your winrate.

The 300BB rule is for an expert player with a normal standard deviation and I think a 95% confidence interval.

For reference I am about average for this board in terms of ability. After my monthly withdrawls, the formula tells me I need a starting roll of around 670BB. If I did not withdraw this number would be much lower... I think aroun 500BB.