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#1
04-28-2005, 11:57 PM
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NL Variance
does anyone have any ball park figures for variance for no limit holdem or have any links to threads about this? i couldn't find any when i searched
i am trying to work out the probability distribution of my winrate i have all my stats on pokertracker 
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#2
04-29-2005, 12:21 AM
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Re: NL Variance
Once you have enough sessions, you can see the standard deviation in PokerTracker under Session Notes -> More Details.
I think the standard deviation depends a lot on your playing style and the game. I get standard deviations of 29 PTBB/100, 35 PTBB/100, and 45 PTBB/100 for full games at different levels and on different sites.
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#4
04-29-2005, 02:38 PM
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Re: NL Variance
[ QUOTE ]
Once you have enough sessions, you can see the standard deviation in PokerTracker under Session Notes -> More Details. I think the standard deviation depends a lot on your playing style and the game. I get standard deviations of 29 PTBB/100, 35 PTBB/100, and 45 PTBB/100 for full games at different levels and on different sites. [/ QUOTE ] what is a PTBB/100 ...specificalyl what does PT stand for... i always though that st.dev in bb/100 would be less in NL than in Limit on average... most great limit players i know have their stdevs in the range of 14-18bbs/100 (now this is big bets while no limit is big blinds right?, so if we divide your #s in half, your 45 is still quite high while the other ones fall in the middle of that range) -Barron
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#5
04-29-2005, 03:26 PM
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Re: NL Variance
1 PTBB equals 2 big blinds. A standard deviation of 45 PTBB/100 would be 90 big blinds/100. There is no reason to use PTBB except that it is what PokerTracker uses, and PokerTracker is the most convenient way to get the data.
The swings in NL are smaller in comparison with the win rate of a winning player, but they are larger in comparison with the big blind. If you play $5-$10 limit, you may have a win rate of $20/100 (2 BB/100) with a standard deviation of $150/100. If you play NL 100, with a $1 big blind, you may have a win rate of $20/100 (10 PTBB/100) with a standard deviation of $80/100. The bankroll needed to win $20/100 is smaller for NL at the same level of safety.
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