Neteller drawing +EV?

Lestat · #1 04-26-2005, 04:47 PM

I tried a search, but couldn't find anything. Can someone tell me which option has the highest EV?

Weekly Draw
Prize: $500.00 USD
Total Entries: 41883
Cost to enter: 1000 NETPoints

Bi-Weekly Draw
Prize: $1000.00 USD
Total Entries: 45522
Cost to enter: 2500 NETPoints

Monthly Draw
Monthly Jackpot: $3000.00 USD
Total Entries: 94545
Cost to enter: 5000 NETPoints

At first, I thought it was the monthly draw, because the prize is 6 times greater than the weekly draw, with the odds only twice as worse. But it also costs you 10 times as much to enter. Can anyone show me how to figure this out (along with the answer)? Thanks.

Lost Wages · #2 04-26-2005, 06:10 PM

Link.

Lost Wages

IlliniRyRy · #3 05-04-2005, 12:09 PM

Can you use an infinite amount of your points for drawing entries? I have over 1 million points, but even if I used them all for the $500 drawing, I think I'd only have like a 20% of winning. Anyone know about this? Can you corner the entire drawing like that or is it forbidden?

mannika · #4 05-04-2005, 10:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Can you use an infinite amount of your points for drawing entries? I have over 1 million points, but even if I used them all for the $500 drawing, I think I'd only have like a 20% of winning. Anyone know about this? Can you corner the entire drawing like that or is it forbidden?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, you could use all of your points in the same drawing to "corner" the drawing, but believe it or not you're better off spreading them out as much as possible. Consider a lottery drawing for $100. Currently there are 19 people entered.

Your first entry is worth 100*(1/20) = $5
Your first two entries are worth 100*(2/21) = $9.52
Your first three entries are worth 100*(3/22) = $13.64

The incremental value of the first entry is therefore $5.
The incremental value of the second entry is therefore $9.52-$5 = $4.52
The incremental value of the third entry is therefore $13.64-$9.52 = $4.12

THEREFORE, each entry that you buy has a lower value to you. Instead of using all of your points in a single lottery, you should spread it around as much as possible.