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#1
04-13-2005, 11:25 AM
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once the cards are shuffled, arent the odds just the same
what im asking is this: the cards are shuffled, i get AA..
the next hand is dealt, the odds of getting AA AGAIN are just the same, previous hands dealt have no influence on the next deal.. if i shuffle the deck, and take the top card, say its A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], the odds of that happening are 1 in 52.. i shuffle again, the odds of getting the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] are again 1 in 52, am i correct in this thinking? 
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#2
04-13-2005, 11:31 AM
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Re: once the cards are shuffled, arent the odds just the same
absolutely correct
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#4
04-13-2005, 10:28 PM
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Re: once the cards are shuffled, arent the odds just the same
noway dood, the chances of getting the same card get much smaller the second time. You see, the deck holds a sort of unconscious memory and reduces your chances of getting the same card. The odds are reduced by an amount proportional to the suit of the card.
For spade cards the odds become 1/53 For hearts, 1/54 For diamonds, 1/55 and this is the interesting part: for clubs, there is only a 1% chance of picking up the same card... This is the same problem as the roulette problem. Let's assume there is no 0 or 00... what are the chances of the ball landing on red? 50%... that's right... Now let's assume the ball has landed on red 5 times in a row, what are the chances that it lands on red again. the answer is 40% If the ball lands on red 10 times in a row, now the probability of it landing on red again is 20%!! It is by observing these patterns that roulette professionals can make thousands of dollars every day...
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#5
04-13-2005, 10:37 PM
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Re: once the cards are shuffled, arent the odds just the same
Very good. Now answer this:
What are the odds you will shuffle the deck and pick the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] twice in a row?
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#7
04-14-2005, 12:50 AM
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Re: once the cards are shuffled, arent the odds just the same
[ QUOTE ]
0%, because once you've removed the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] there is no A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] left in the deck. [/ QUOTE ] i'm pretty sure you're A) missing the question and B) wrong... first of all, read the original question and you'll see that this is obviously with replacement... secondly, and pay attention to this one, if you draw the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and replace it, and truly shuffle the deck to the point that it is random again and independent of the previous draw / shuffle, the odds of drawing the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is the same every time... it should theoretically work the same as independent trials...
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#8
04-14-2005, 01:04 AM
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Re: once the cards are shuffled, arent the odds just the same
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 0%, because once you've removed the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] there is no A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] left in the deck. [/ QUOTE ] i'm pretty sure you're A) missing the question and B) wrong... first of all, read the original question and you'll see that this is obviously with replacement... secondly, and pay attention to this one, if you draw the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and replace it, and truly shuffle the deck to the point that it is random again and independent of the previous draw / shuffle, the odds of drawing the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is the same every time... it should theoretically work the same as independent trials... [/ QUOTE ] im prety sure youre both wrong regarding terrys question
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#9
04-14-2005, 04:14 AM
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Re: once the cards are shuffled, arent the odds just the same
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 0%, because once you've removed the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] there is no A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] left in the deck. [/ QUOTE ] i'm pretty sure you're A) missing the question and B) wrong... [/ QUOTE ] Just a wild guess but from the tone of the posts I think he actually might be C) joking :P
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#10
04-14-2005, 08:50 AM
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Re: once the cards are shuffled, arent the odds just the same
sorry i wasnt specific.. once the hand is OVER and the cards are RESHUFFLED.. i shuffle the deck, the top card is A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], i put it back INTO the deck, RESHUFFLE, the odds are still 1 in 52... im coming from the angle of i get QQ one hand, the hand is over, the next deal is again, QQ
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