#1
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Probabilities of hitting a flush draw on the flop
If you are sitting with two cards suited, what is the exact probability that that either two or three more cards of the same suit will flop?
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#2
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Re: Probabilities of hitting a flush draw on the flop
Prob in % are:
0 match = 46.6% 1 match = 40.5% 2 match = 10.7% 3 match = 0.8% (I think - I worked it out by hand!) so your answer is 10.7% and 0.8% respectively I could be wrong though [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
#3
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Re: Probabilities of hitting a flush draw on the flop
Exactly 3 cards to make the flush: 0.84%
Only 2 cards to give you the draw: 11.22% Either event makes you happy: 12.07% So, is it a good idea to see the flop with any 2 suited cards? |
#4
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Re: Probabilities of hitting a flush draw on the flop
You have suited cards.
Number of ways to make a four flush on the flop: C(11,2) * C(39,1) = 2145 Number of way to flop a flush: C(11,3) = 165 Since there are C(50,3) = 19,600 possible flops here are your aswers: Four flush: 2145/19600 = 10.9% or 8.1:1 against. Flush: 165/19600 = 0.84% or 117.8:1 against: Four flush or flush: 2310/19600 = 11.8% or 7.5:1 against. |
#5
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Re: Probabilities of hitting a flush draw on the flop
Thx.. This will be good to have in mind when evaluating whether or not to see a flop with cards that don't have much value besides the flush oppurtunity. With 12% chance of hitting either a flush draw or finished flush, hands like 39s might be worth playing from the small blind.
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#6
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Re: Probabilities of hitting a flush draw on the flop
[ QUOTE ]
You have suited cards. Number of ways to make a four flush on the flop: C(11,2) * C(39,1) = 2145 Number of way to flop a flush: C(11,3) = 165 Since there are C(50,3) = 19,600 possible flops here are your aswers: Four flush: 2145/19600 = 10.9% or 8.1:1 against. Flush: 165/19600 = 0.84% or 117.8:1 against: Four flush or flush: 2310/19600 = 11.8% or 7.5:1 against. [/ QUOTE ] My bad. I worked the four-flush slightly wrong. I do these in a strange long-hand way, so it's easy to mess up a calc. My corrected calc for the 4 flush only is: ((11/50)*(10/49)*(39/48))*3 = 10.9% |
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