How to find out if you are a winner in tournaments?

[ShadowBJ21]

Sounds silly? No!
We all calculate Expected Results and Standard Deviation for Cashgames to find out if we are a long term winner or not.

But how is this done with tournaments?
Don't tell me: "If you win money" - because that answer is only valid long term. But standard deviation applies here too.

Can it be done with the percentage of the placement?
It looks like most tournaments (at least the online tournaments) pay around 10% of the field. So if you place in that 10% you get back your money or win something.
Outside you get nothing. But you placed somewere (e.g. in the last 35% of the field).

I think it is important to look at these numbers - to realize were you are positioned.

Unfortunatly even long term winning tournament players don't place always in the paying 10%. So what %-Value on avergage do you expect for a long term winner? 25%, 33%...?