Help! David, Prob. of SF over SF, all 4 hole cards play

#1 10-21-2002, 10:50 PM

David (or anyone that can help), I need to know the approximate probability of str flush
over str flush in holdem. Both cards in both hands must play. Your help will be greatly
appreciated.
Romo

#2 10-22-2002, 05:41 PM

You pose a very loosely defined probability problem. The solver has to assume things to get a good answer for your question. I guess you mean a nine handed holdem game where all nine players play to the river for a showdown? I think that a series of combinations of monte carlo simulations and proability counting calulations could give some estimates to what you are looking for....Calculations have to me made at to what percentage of the time that both players have two SF cards in their hands. I don't think it is an easy problem to solve, and also not a realistic problem to solve. Poker casino managment determine size of the jackpot prize by keeping records on how often jackpots occur and the games that they occur in. Casino usually (very seldom) loose money on jackpots giveaways. Jackpots as you know are a form of advertizing to increase business....

#3 10-23-2002, 04:43 PM

Carl, It does involve a jackpot which is funded by the players. Of course its a "carrot,"
but, I'm interested to solve the problem (within reasonable approximations) to help settle
conjecture by some and to satisfy my own curiosity. We can assume that any player with
a starting possibility will continue until it is no longer a possibility or continue until the final
card.

romo

Ed Miller · #4 10-23-2002, 04:53 PM

You wouldn't happen to play at Muckleshoot, would you? They have the straight flush over straight flush "super jackpot" that is currently at about $160K. One thing you should be aware of, though, is that a significant number of jackpot-qualifying hands will never get played. To hit the jackpot, you need exactly three sequential, suited board cards with someone having the top of it and someone else having the bottom (except for some very unlikely scenarios like AJs and 87s on a KQT96s board). But think about some of the cases... for example, someone holds AKs and someone holds 98s... AKs will probably raise pre-flop, and if 98s is behind him, he will be hardpressed to call. Similarly with KQs and 87s. Furthermore, a lot of the lower suited connectors will be folded given the action (or position). So assuming that all qualifying hands will be played to conclusion will get you a frequency that is probably at least double the correct frequency.