WPT Analysis (long)

[DesertCat]

This is an analysis of the WPT that was done on the ValueInvestors.com forum. It's a short recommendation and while I don't ever recommend naked shorts, it's well written and makes some reasonable points. So I thought I'd post it for the occasional people wondering if WPT is a buy. Please note this analysis is 4 months old as well.

"Short Recommendation - WPT Enterprises, Inc.

Poker? but I barely even know her...

OK, seriously, if you know who Phil Helmouth, Doyle Brunson, Howard Lederer, and
Phil Ivey are, or if you have ever been burned on the river by some tourist holding
3-7 offsuit, you can skip this brief introduction to WPTE and move straight to the
short case. If you are new to Texas Hold 'Em and the World Poker Tour, here's what you
need to know.

Poker is the generic term applied to any traditional-deck card game utilizing the
rank order of hands that we're all familiar with. A pair beats ace-high, two-pair
beats a pair, and a straight flush is like... unbeatable... (shameless Honeymoon in
Vegas reference). You get the idea. Within the generic class of games called poker you
have variations where your hand consists of combinations of "up" cards, cards
everyone can see, and "down" cards (or hole cards), cards that only you can see. The
World Series of Poker was started at Binion's Casino in downtown Las Vegas with a few
now-notorious gamblers including Amarillo Slim and Doyle Brunson. The variety of Poker
chosen for the World Series was Texas Hold 'Em. This game consists of two down
cards and five community up cards. The player with the best five-card poker hand wins.
Within the last few years, Texas Hold 'Em has increased in popularity as a direct
result of ESPN's broadcast of the World Series of Poker and the Travel Channel's
broadcast of the World Poker Tour. A novel technique used at the World Poker Tour is the
placement of a "down" card camera, which reveals these cards to the viewing public.
This gives the World Poker Tour a reality TV feel and has been a catalyst for its
popularity.

WPTE Business Overview -

Steven Lipscomb started the company in 2002. He was CEO until the company became
public, then relinquished the title and now retains presidency of the company. The
CEO is now Lyle Berman, former Grand Casinos chairman. Mr. Berman is also Chairman and
CEO of Lakes Entertainment (LACO), a publicly traded company that runs tribal
casinos. LACO owns 64% of the outstanding shares of WPTE and also performs G&A services
such as treasury, HR, accounting, and marketing. WPTE compensates LACO for these
services. Lipscomb had the idea to film professional poker players playing Texas Hold
'Em in a reality TV format. The Travel Channel gambled on the series and won big,
scoring extremely high ratings for a cable TV
series.

Operating segments

WPT studios:
The studios segment produces and licenses the World Poker Tour television
episodes. WPT has entered into agreements with the Travel Channel to exclusively broadcast
Seasons One and Two of the WPT in the U.S. and options to acquire similar licenses
for the episodes comprising each of the Seasons Three through Seven, the last of which
will be in 2009. These licenses accounted for 83% of total company revenues since
inception. In May the Travel Channel exercised its option with respect to Season
Three for which the company expects to receive $10.8 million in license revenue.
International license fees have generated an additional $500k to
date.

WPTE Consumer Products:
The company licenses the WPT brand to playing card and poker table manufacturers.
This segment accounted for about $200K in revenue so
far.

Other:
Host fees from casinos, memberships and sponsorships should account for a little
over $2 million in additional revenue in
2004.



The Short Case
I need to start by admitting that I love to watch the WPT. I also love poker. But
the fact is that WPTE is a TV producer with a popular new reality show and is
subject to the ebbs and flows of viewer interest. Management was hoping to create, and is
pitching the company as, the next NASCAR Winston cup series or NFL season with their
WPT franchise. But the low capital requirements of producing a TV poker game almost
insure viable competitive threats like the ones we are already seeing from
Championship Poker at the Plaza, a 26 week television series broadcast on UPN, and BRAVO's
Celebrity Poker Showdown. Harrah’s has recently purchased the rights to The World
Series of Poker and has already flexed some of its marketing muscle in promoting
it.

I can't help but think we may be at a point of maximum optimism for WPTE shares
given the popularity of the TV series and poker in general. (my MBA interns all play
poker online instead of reading up on their Graham and Dodd). The market is currently
pricing in overly optimistic growth projections. While WPTE is a profitable
licensor with attractive economics, at 115 times earnings, they would need to grow large
and grow quickly to catch up with its current valuation. I believe that this scenario
is unlikely.

Financials:

MV $260 million
Cash+ST inv $30 million
EV $230 million

2004E REV $16 million
COGS $9 million
SG&A $5 million
NET In $2 million
EV/NI 115x

Even if the company deserved a 25x multiple (a generous assumption), the company
should be generating at least $9 million in run-rate earnings to be appropriately
priced. How could the company get there?

The largest piece of the business by far is the domestic WPT studios division,
which we know from company filings will only generate $10.8 million in total revenue
and perhaps $5 million in GP contribution in the next year. Total company SG&A growth
should push 2005 higher than the 2004E of $5 million. Applying total SG&A against
the domestic studios division leaves us at essentially zero. Considering the studios
division is 83% of the business, in order to get us to the desired $9 million we
would need that much in revenue from the other 17% of the business
-

segment revs in MRQ revs past 9 months
International TV $345,000 $510,000
Product Licensing $159,000 $212,000
Host Fees $50,000 $850,000
Memberships $42,000 $510,000
Sponsorships $28,000 $205,000
PPT - see below 0 0
$624,000 $2,287,000

The total contribution from these segments would obviously have to triple to
quadruple for current valuations to be close
reasonable.

Looking out past 05, the Travel Channel would also have to markedly increase the
amount it was willing to pay per episode (if it decides to exercise its option at
all) in order for WPTE to get more juice in its core business. In fact, the licensing
arrangement with the Travel Channel can be viewed like a royalty trust if you operate
on the premise that WPT does not become the next NFL and instead goes the way of
the dodo in the years down the road.

The company is spending in an attempt to replicate the success of the WPT by
launching the Professional Poker Tour. There is certainly the possibility of financial
success with the PPT, but cannibalization and fragmentation are likely to occur. I
believe that there is enough 'margin of safety' built into current prices for the PPT
to be a success and have investors still make money on the short
side.

Lastly, LACO (64% owner of WPTE) generated no revenues as of last year and
disclosed that it needs $12 million in corporate costs to be covered along with $10 million
in development costs for one of its tribal casinos. It only has about $15 million
on the books and will most likely need to source additional funds. A likely candidate
would be sale shares if WPTE.


Risks:
The company has a relatively small market cap and even smaller float, so the usual
risks/problems apply when shorting.

Catalyst:

LACO share sales after lockup expires
Competitive threats increase
Profits fail to materialize
"

[r3vbr]

short WPTE then?

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]
short WPTE then?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. The problem with shorting is that (without using margin) you can only double your money and your potential losses are infinite. Even if you know a stock is overvalued, it's impossible to know when it will return to fair value. And it might double or triple while you wait.

It's like the internet bubble. There were stocks that were only worth $5, trading at $50. If you tried to short them eventually you would be right, but in the meantime they'd go to $200 and you'd be broke.

[Stock Whiz]

WPTonline.com just opened.....the website looks great. I think it will bring in lots of revenue, but we'll see. The analysis is old and does not consider the potential millions WPTE could make thru this online gaming website. I am long this stock.

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]
WPTonline.com just opened.....the website looks great. I think it will bring in lots of revenue, but we'll see. The analysis is old and does not consider the potential millions WPTE could make thru this online gaming website. I am long this stock.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually if you read the original writeup, the author discusses the value of their gambling opportunities, including the IGT deal. He doesn't think much of the WPTE opportunity, given the competitiveness of the online poker business.

My concern would be whether they would lose sponsorship if they compete directly with sponsers. Either way, it doesn't seem like the existing business value accounts for the current stock price. WPT online must be successful or the stock is in trouble. If it is successful, then the stock may be very cheap.

[tek]

[ QUOTE ]
No. The problem with shorting is that (without using margin) you can only double your money and your potential losses are infinite. Even if you know a stock is overvalued, it's impossible to know when it will return to fair value. And it might double or triple while you wait.

It's like the internet bubble. There were stocks that were only worth $5, trading at $50. If you tried to short them eventually you would be right, but in the meantime they'd go to $200 and you'd be broke.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. The insiders and market makers will run it up if they see a bunch of retail shorting occur. And they WILL know it when they see it. As the poster said, it could go up after you short and then tank after you cover your losses.

Selling call options (not buying puts) at 20 and buying calls at 25 might be a way to go.

[OrangeCat]

WPTE is not optionable.

[tek]

[ QUOTE ]
WPTE is not optionable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Next case [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Stock Whiz]

"And I did look at the site, and played a couple of hands...(I have a credit card via a toronto bank that works fine)"

Someone posted this on the Yahoo message board for WPTE. Does anyone else agree this may be a way to get around the rule not allowing U.S. players to play on the website? - WPTOnline.com

If this works, I think the website will be a huge success.

[BradleyT]

There's already 200 players on the site. If they each lose $500,000 in rake this year the company will be fairly valued at its current market cap.

Oh wait, 180 of those are in the freeroll...