What are the odds of 4 of a kind beating 4 of a kind?

[Tiltaniac]

Given that you are playing HU LHE and that both you are your opponents starts off with a PP:

what are the odds that both of you flop a set, the weaker set turns quads and the other player rivers a higher 4 of a kind?

Tiltaniac

[mosquito]

Ahh, the old jackpot question. Looking
forward to an answer, too.

[fnord_too]

If you both start with a pair, there are 44 boards (independant of the order they show up in) that will give you each quads. There are C(48,5) possible boards, so 44/c(48,5).

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
If you both start with a pair, there are 44 boards (independant of the order they show up in) that will give you each quads. There are C(48,5) possible boards, so 44/c(48,5).

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct. That comes out to about 1 in 39K.

Of course, it is much harder to win the jackpot than that. Because both of you have to start with a PP first, and then you both have to see it thru to the river.

[DrPublo]

More than that even, you both need to start with a PP 88 or higher.

Although you'll need to compensate for the times one player makes open quads with a playing kicker, ie A8 v 99 when the board is 99888.

The Doc

[KubrickFan]

So the overlay's great enough that if you're going to play limit on Party Poker you have a positive expectation playing the BB tables as opposed to the regular ones?

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
So the overlay's great enough that if you're going to play limit on Party Poker you have a positive expectation playing the BB tables as opposed to the regular ones?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. How did you draw that conclusion?

The only reason to play the BB tables is for the softer competition. As a bet in and of itself, it is terrible. As was pointed out, the odds of winning are much worse than the calculations made in this thread -- which assume that both players already have PP 88 or higher.

[Pokerscott]

At some point the size of the bad beat payoff becomes large enough that it is a positive expected value to play there. I haven't calculated the breakeven point however...(curse work!)

pokerscott

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

In my enire poker career i have seen this once. I won w/ 6666 vs 3333. It was awsome.

[radek2166]

So what at what point does it become+EV?